In backtest, only 21% of 0x08e3…c0ae's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 21% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 34% only partly; the −$661.42 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x08e3…c0ae's 178 buys across 111 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$661.42. The leader lost $371.27 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $16.77, slippage $133.75 and fees $139.63. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,948 at once across 98 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 14 estimated: 0 high · 6 medium · 8 low · 75 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$1,755; 1 min: −$961.36; 5 min: −$661.42; 30 min: −$267.96. Max drawdown −$1,803 (5 min, Sep 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | −$170.53 | −$108.48 | −$93.49 | −$101.37 |
| Sep 21 | +$55.83 | +$762.06 | +$844.22 | −$371.26 |
| Sep 22 | −$1,755 | −$961.36 | −$661.42 | −$267.96 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$1,755 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
| 1 min | −$961.36 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$661.42 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 21% |
| 30 min | −$267.96 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 4% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$371.27
- Delay cost−$16.77
- Slippage−$133.75
- Fees (buys $137.15 · sells $2.48)−$139.63
- Follower PnL−$661.42
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weather | 130 | −$217.81 | −14.9% |
| Sports | 48 | −$443.61 | −12.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Weather traders
- 0x819d…07f1Keeps 81% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf361…783aKeeps 44% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x44aa…f3d2Keeps 14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe8d0…5542Keeps −2% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa45f…d6cbLeader lost money at this size
- 0xa5f2…c000Keeps −34% at a 5-minute delay
See the full list of backtested wallets, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.