In backtest, only 8% of 0x819d…07f1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 8% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the +$4,723 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x819d…07f1's 3,247 buys across 1,596 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 81% of the leader's returns: +$4,723 against +$5,802 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 8% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $59.10, slippage $253.88 and fees $765.84. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,576 at once across 740 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,807 estimated: 1,145 high · 223 medium · 439 low · 1,072 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$4,744; 1 min: +$3,886; 5 min: +$4,723; 30 min: +$10,870. Max drawdown −$2,877 (5 min, Oct 20). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | +$528.32 | +$464.32 | +$454.26 | +$210.63 |
| Sep 28 | +$3,091 | +$2,854 | +$2,001 | +$1,572 |
| Sep 29 | +$3,354 | +$3,108 | +$2,264 | +$1,605 |
| Sep 30 | +$5,046 | +$4,816 | +$4,171 | +$2,436 |
| Oct 1 | +$4,946 | +$4,730 | +$4,142 | +$2,342 |
| Oct 2 | +$4,676 | +$4,439 | +$3,868 | +$2,198 |
| Oct 3 | +$4,442 | +$4,240 | +$3,733 | +$2,192 |
| Oct 4 | +$6,104 | +$5,871 | +$4,723 | +$4,000 |
| Oct 5 | +$5,851 | +$5,627 | +$4,854 | +$3,956 |
| Oct 6 | +$5,802 | +$5,575 | +$5,004 | +$3,861 |
| Oct 7 | +$7,869 | +$7,552 | +$6,300 | +$12,543 |
| Oct 8 | +$7,531 | +$7,228 | +$6,081 | +$12,302 |
| Oct 9 | +$7,684 | +$7,334 | +$5,930 | +$12,358 |
| Oct 10 | +$8,048 | +$7,409 | +$6,193 | +$13,194 |
| Oct 11 | +$8,186 | +$7,392 | +$6,716 | +$13,215 |
| Oct 12 | +$8,191 | +$7,050 | +$6,845 | +$13,321 |
| Oct 13 | +$8,568 | +$7,275 | +$7,033 | +$13,266 |
| Oct 14 | +$8,649 | +$7,675 | +$7,336 | +$13,448 |
| Oct 15 | +$8,454 | +$7,433 | +$7,252 | +$13,314 |
| Oct 16 | +$8,339 | +$7,316 | +$7,299 | +$13,260 |
| Oct 17 | +$8,448 | +$7,355 | +$7,170 | +$13,147 |
| Oct 18 | +$8,286 | +$7,239 | +$7,314 | +$13,043 |
| Oct 19 | +$5,251 | +$4,387 | +$4,486 | +$10,895 |
| Oct 20 | +$5,106 | +$4,309 | +$4,484 | +$10,828 |
| Oct 21 | +$5,097 | +$4,302 | +$4,483 | +$10,828 |
| Oct 22 | +$5,496 | +$4,706 | +$4,851 | +$10,818 |
| Oct 23 | +$5,809 | +$4,993 | +$5,271 | +$11,060 |
| Oct 24 | +$4,624 | +$3,765 | +$4,907 | +$10,780 |
| Oct 25 | +$4,101 | +$3,289 | +$5,215 | +$10,587 |
| Oct 26 | +$4,744 | +$3,886 | +$4,723 | +$10,870 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$4,744 | 81.8% | 11% |
| 1 min | +$3,886 | 67.0% | 10% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$4,723 | 81.4% | 8% |
| 30 min | +$10,870 | 100%+ (Exactly 187.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 7% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$5,802
- Delay cost−$59.10
- Slippage−$253.88
- Fees (buys $713.21 · sells $52.63)−$765.84
- Follower PnL+$4,723
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weather | 2,442 | +$1,020 | +11.5% |
| Politics | 491 | +$149.06 | +1.0% |
| Sports | 150 | +$1,390 | +15.4% |
| Tech | 94 | +$1,766 | +146% |
| Geopolitics | 40 | +$242.14 | +18.8% |
| Culture | 29 | +$156.59 | +56.3% |
| Economy | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Weather traders
- 0xf361…783aKeeps 44% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x44aa…f3d2Keeps 14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x08e3…c0aeLeader lost money at this size
- 0xe8d0…5542Keeps −2% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa45f…d6cbLeader lost money at this size
- 0xa5f2…c000Keeps −34% at a 5-minute delay
See the full list of backtested wallets, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.