Polymarket Copy Trading Backtest: What a Delayed Copy Would Have Kept
Paste a Polymarket wallet. We replay every buy from on-chain fills as if you had copied it 0, 1, 5 or 30 minutes later, at the prices that were actually available, minus fees. You see what a follower keeps — not what the trader made.
Try one from the top 100: 0x23d8…0288
- Replayed from on-chain fills
- 0, 1, 5 and 30-minute delays
- After slippage and fees
What copying the top 100 traders returns in our backtest
of the top 100 traders by PnL lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay. The median copy keeps 23.4% of the trader's returns.
Pick a delaySample: top 100 wallets by realized PnL; $100 per copied buy. How we calculate this.
How a copy trade is priced
Every backtest replays the same three steps for each of the trader's buys.
The trader buys at price p
We start from the trader's own fill on Polygon: when they bought and what they paid.
You copy 5 minutes later, at a higher price
Other buyers move the price before your order arrives. The gap between the two prices is the delay cost.
What's left after slippage and fees
Filling the full copy size costs a little more again, and taker fees come off the top. The rest is what a follower would keep (simulated).
Illustration, not data. Each trader's simulated breakdown, in dollars, is on their wallet page.
Top traders by PnL, and what a copier would have kept
| Trader | Leader PnL | Follower PnL | Returns kept |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x23d8…0288 | +$101k | +$89.5k | 88.3% |
| 0x2e7b…bd8c | +$70.3k | +$53.3k | 75.8% |
| 0xc301…66aa | +$66.7k | +$84.5k | 100%+ (Exactly 126.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) |
| 0x4488…e319 | +$59.1k | +$32.0k | 54.1% |
| 0x6575…b198 | +$50.2k | +$34.3k | 68.4% |
| 0xbeb1…4687 | +$47.9k | +$43.9k | 91.6% |
| 0x629b…995a | +$40.2k | +$45.4k | 100%+ (Exactly 113.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) |
| 0x24c8…23e1 | +$37.6k | +$43.7k | 100%+ (Exactly 116.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) |
| 0x252d…c456 | +$32.9k | −$1,280 | −3.9% |
| 0xdf17…97d1 | +$22.7k | +$17.4k | 76.7% |
Polymarket copy trading leaderboards by category
Each board ranks traders by how much of their returns a copier keeps after a 5-minute delay, slippage and fees — not by what the trader made — with an out-of-sample column showing how they did after the ranking period.
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Polymarket copy trading All categories leaderboard
3 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Politics leaderboard
5 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Sports leaderboard
1 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Crypto leaderboard
8 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Economy leaderboard
7 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Finance leaderboard
2 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Tech leaderboard
7 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Culture leaderboard
5 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
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Polymarket copy trading Geopolitics leaderboard
5 of the PnL top 20 lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay
Line: the No. 1 trader's simulated follower PnL over time at 5 min.
Why copying loses money, and how we measure it
Why does copying Polymarket traders lose money?
Methodology: how delay, slippage and fees are replayed from real on-chain fills, and how the backtest score works.
10 min read- How much does copying a few minutes late cost? (slippage)What delay cost and slippage mean for a copier, and how we measure them from fills that actually happened.1 min read
- How do Polymarket fees work for a copy trader?Why a copier almost always pays taker fees, and where they show up in every backtest.1 min read
- Why do past winners often stop winning? (out-of-sample)Why each ranked trader comes with results from after the ranking period, and how to read them.1 min read
- Is the data accurate? How we reconcile itHow indexed on-chain fills are checked against Polymarket's own trade records every day.1 min read
Polymarket copy trading: common questions
Does Polymarket copy trading hold up in a backtest?
Usually less than the trader's own record suggests. A copier buys after the trader, at whatever price is left, and pays taker fees, so part of the edge is gone before the market resolves. In our backtests a few traders stay profitable after delay; the leaderboards rank these simulated results, which don't predict future results. In our latest backtest, 17% of the top 100 traders by PnL lose money for a copier at a 5-minute delay.
How much does a copy delay cost?
It depends on the trader and the market. Prices often move after a large buy, so a copy placed 1, 5 or 30 minutes later pays more per share, or can only be partly filled. Paste any wallet above to see its delay cost at each delay, measured from fills that actually happened.
What fees does a Polymarket copy trader pay?
A copy order almost always takes liquidity, so it pays taker fees in markets that charge them, even when the trader paid none as a maker. Every backtest subtracts these fees from the copier's result.
How does the backtest work?
For every buy the trader made, we start 0, 1, 5 or 30 minutes later and fill a $100 copy from the real taker buys that followed in the same outcome, then mirror the trader's sells the same way. Resolved markets pay 1 or 0; open positions are marked at the last price. It is a simulation, not a record of real copy trades.
Is this financial advice?
No. FollowCheck is a research tool: it doesn't place trades, sell signals or recommend anyone to copy. Backtests use historical data, and past results don't predict future results.