In backtest, only 15% of 0x2b77…9ec3's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 15% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the +$6,794 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x2b77…9ec3's 126 buys across 15 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$6,794 — more than the leader's +$1,573 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (432.0%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$5,165, slippage helped by +$116.61 and fees $60.48. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $721.46 at once across 29 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 56 estimated: 48 high · 6 medium · 2 low · 49 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$6,027; 1 min: +$7,023; 5 min: +$6,794; 30 min: +$223.67. Max drawdown −$147.23 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 27 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 28 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 29 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 30 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 1 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 2 | −$21.64 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 3 | −$24.61 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 4 | −$24.61 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 5 | −$24.61 | −$0.79 | $0.00 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 6 | −$64.93 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 7 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 8 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 9 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 10 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 11 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 12 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 13 | −$71.97 | −$40.85 | −$9.40 | +$1.81 |
| Oct 14 | +$5,764 | +$6,899 | +$6,557 | +$38.20 |
| Oct 15 | +$5,792 | +$6,903 | +$6,571 | −$47.45 |
| Oct 16 | +$5,779 | +$6,900 | +$6,511 | −$79.43 |
| Oct 17 | +$5,779 | +$6,900 | +$6,511 | −$79.43 |
| Oct 18 | +$5,778 | +$6,900 | +$6,511 | −$79.42 |
| Oct 19 | +$5,778 | +$6,900 | +$6,511 | −$74.39 |
| Oct 20 | +$6,035 | +$7,066 | +$6,799 | +$231.69 |
| Oct 21 | +$6,038 | +$7,066 | +$6,794 | +$223.74 |
| Oct 22 | +$6,027 | +$7,023 | +$6,794 | +$223.67 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$6,027 | 100%+ (Exactly 383.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 20% |
| 1 min | +$7,023 | 100%+ (Exactly 446.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$6,794 | 100%+ (Exactly 432.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 15% |
| 30 min | +$223.67 | 14.2% | 17% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,573
- Delay helped+$5,165
- Slippage helped+$116.61
- Fees (buys $51.97 · sells $8.51)−$60.48
- Follower PnL+$6,794
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 61 | −$3.55 | −1.8% |
| Politics | 50 | −$43.04 | −5.6% |
| Sports | 15 | +$6,841 | +667% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Economy traders
- 0xbe89…b88cKeeps 58% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa53b…4021Keeps 52% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0ffc…8236Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd06f…d4a6Keeps 27% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8a7b…782fKeeps 10% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4755…4338Keeps 8% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Economy copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.