In backtest, only 2% of 0xa53b…4021's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 2% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the +$2,636 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xa53b…4021's 761 buys across 221 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 52% of the leader's returns: +$2,636 against +$5,023 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 2% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $1,973, slippage $176.51 and fees $237.62. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $804.38 at once across 100 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 265 estimated: 68 high · 95 medium · 102 low · 447 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3,423; 1 min: +$2,886; 5 min: +$2,636; 30 min: +$502.92. Max drawdown −$576.39 (5 min, Oct 9). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$68.64 | +$44.44 | +$76.18 | +$15.04 |
| Sep 22 | +$71.50 | +$45.84 | +$76.18 | +$15.04 |
| Sep 23 | +$1,224 | +$1,116 | +$529.69 | +$269.62 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,231 | +$1,120 | +$530.11 | +$150.07 |
| Sep 25 | +$1,236 | +$1,120 | +$540.79 | +$150.07 |
| Sep 26 | +$1,198 | +$1,055 | +$528.51 | +$138.28 |
| Sep 27 | +$1,222 | +$1,069 | +$542.37 | +$151.50 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,208 | +$1,061 | +$542.37 | +$151.50 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,208 | +$1,061 | +$542.37 | +$125.72 |
| Sep 30 | +$2,301 | +$2,068 | +$1,238 | +$434.69 |
| Oct 1 | +$2,865 | +$2,636 | +$1,208 | +$502.47 |
| Oct 2 | +$3,206 | +$2,735 | +$1,368 | +$1,425 |
| Oct 3 | +$3,165 | +$2,696 | +$1,360 | +$1,399 |
| Oct 4 | +$3,165 | +$2,696 | +$1,360 | +$1,399 |
| Oct 5 | +$3,096 | +$2,666 | +$1,329 | +$1,153 |
| Oct 6 | +$3,096 | +$2,666 | +$1,329 | +$1,153 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,699 | +$2,349 | +$1,037 | +$997.28 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,734 | +$2,374 | +$1,037 | +$999.15 |
| Oct 9 | +$2,574 | +$2,233 | +$898.70 | +$998.10 |
| Oct 10 | +$2,563 | +$2,233 | +$898.70 | +$998.10 |
| Oct 11 | +$2,563 | +$2,233 | +$898.70 | +$998.10 |
| Oct 12 | +$2,587 | +$2,224 | +$940.39 | +$892.36 |
| Oct 13 | +$2,700 | +$2,290 | +$997.55 | +$760.10 |
| Oct 14 | +$2,979 | +$2,593 | +$1,368 | +$764.56 |
| Oct 15 | +$3,333 | +$2,943 | +$1,619 | +$859.45 |
| Oct 16 | +$3,375 | +$2,947 | +$1,619 | +$859.45 |
| Oct 17 | +$3,382 | +$2,949 | +$1,620 | +$859.45 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,409 | +$2,980 | +$1,652 | +$859.45 |
| Oct 19 | +$3,795 | +$3,337 | +$2,246 | +$764.32 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,139 | +$2,628 | +$2,200 | +$403.81 |
| Oct 21 | +$3,392 | +$2,892 | +$2,485 | +$403.81 |
| Oct 22 | +$3,417 | +$2,893 | +$2,620 | +$402.74 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,419 | +$2,893 | +$2,647 | +$402.74 |
| Oct 24 | +$3,425 | +$2,895 | +$2,650 | +$400.62 |
| Oct 25 | +$3,423 | +$2,886 | +$2,636 | +$502.92 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3,423 | 68.1% | 4% |
| 1 min | +$2,886 | 57.5% | 4% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,636 | 52.5% | 2% |
| 30 min | +$502.92 | 10.0% | 3% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$5,023
- Delay cost−$1,973
- Slippage−$176.51
- Fees (buys $167.64 · sells $69.98)−$237.62
- Follower PnL+$2,636
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 294 | +$532.41 | +64.5% |
| Crypto | 236 | +$2,130 | +85.7% |
| Finance | 195 | −$26.12 | −11.1% |
| Politics | 36 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Economy traders
- 0x2b77…9ec3Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbe89…b88cKeeps 58% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0ffc…8236Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd06f…d4a6Keeps 27% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8a7b…782fKeeps 10% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4755…4338Keeps 8% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Economy copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.