In backtest, only 10% of 0xa19c…de6b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional4 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:01 UTC.
Only 10% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 16% only partly; the +$6,015 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xa19c…de6b's 3,788 buys across 744 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 38% of the leader's returns: +$6,015 against +$15,728 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $8,526, slippage $85.95 and fees $1,101. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $15,220 at once across 984 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,240 estimated: 889 high · 957 medium · 394 low · 1,047 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$6,931; 1 min: +$6,616; 5 min: +$6,015; 30 min: −$2,031. Max drawdown −$2,321 (5 min, Oct 2). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$5,594 | +$5,274 | +$3,461 | +$2,523 |
| Sep 22 | +$6,329 | +$5,902 | +$3,741 | +$2,621 |
| Sep 23 | +$6,264 | +$5,815 | +$3,765 | +$2,708 |
| Sep 24 | +$7,123 | +$6,522 | +$4,329 | +$3,123 |
| Sep 25 | +$7,454 | +$6,558 | +$4,352 | +$3,173 |
| Sep 26 | +$7,360 | +$6,520 | +$4,374 | +$3,191 |
| Sep 27 | +$7,121 | +$6,634 | +$4,821 | +$3,251 |
| Sep 28 | +$5,973 | +$5,388 | +$3,359 | +$2,157 |
| Sep 29 | +$5,490 | +$5,044 | +$3,035 | +$1,904 |
| Sep 30 | +$5,091 | +$4,631 | +$2,633 | +$1,796 |
| Oct 1 | +$4,971 | +$4,564 | +$2,642 | +$1,763 |
| Oct 2 | +$5,474 | +$5,041 | +$3,171 | +$1,696 |
| Oct 3 | +$5,358 | +$4,974 | +$3,179 | +$1,669 |
| Oct 4 | +$5,641 | +$5,374 | +$3,405 | +$1,661 |
| Oct 5 | +$5,938 | +$5,674 | +$3,645 | +$1,822 |
| Oct 6 | +$6,547 | +$6,093 | +$4,164 | +$1,907 |
| Oct 7 | +$9,610 | +$9,103 | +$7,433 | +$1,596 |
| Oct 8 | +$9,306 | +$8,617 | +$7,132 | +$1,324 |
| Oct 9 | +$9,171 | +$8,450 | +$7,023 | +$1,324 |
| Oct 10 | +$8,883 | +$8,364 | +$6,921 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 11 | +$8,804 | +$8,277 | +$6,813 | +$1,212 |
| Oct 12 | +$8,579 | +$8,242 | +$6,533 | +$1,241 |
| Oct 13 | +$8,620 | +$8,304 | +$6,567 | +$1,191 |
| Oct 14 | +$8,667 | +$8,413 | +$6,511 | +$989.73 |
| Oct 15 | +$9,775 | +$9,253 | +$7,409 | +$673.81 |
| Oct 16 | +$10,253 | +$9,751 | +$7,860 | +$59.57 |
| Oct 17 | +$10,160 | +$9,781 | +$7,874 | −$28.40 |
| Oct 18 | +$9,448 | +$8,969 | +$7,182 | −$626.26 |
| Oct 19 | +$9,742 | +$9,192 | +$7,267 | −$637.02 |
| Oct 20 | +$9,595 | +$9,174 | +$7,209 | −$844.40 |
| Oct 21 | +$8,742 | +$8,360 | +$7,147 | −$974.39 |
| Oct 22 | +$7,928 | +$7,648 | +$6,674 | −$1,660 |
| Oct 23 | +$7,377 | +$6,920 | +$5,978 | −$1,938 |
| Oct 24 | +$7,076 | +$6,783 | +$6,009 | −$2,188 |
| Oct 25 | +$6,931 | +$6,616 | +$6,015 | −$2,031 |
| Oct 26 | +$6,931 | +$6,616 | +$6,015 | −$2,031 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$6,931 | 44.1% | 14% |
| 1 min | +$6,616 | 42.1% | 12% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$6,015 | 38.3% | 10% |
| 30 min | −$2,031 | −12.9% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$15,728
- Delay cost−$8,526
- Slippage−$85.95
- Fees (buys $1,101 · sells $0.00)−$1,101
- Follower PnL+$6,015
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 3,023 | +$5,138 | +11.7% |
| Finance | 760 | +$876.82 | +10.2% |
| Economy | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x2d88…d5e8Keeps 33% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5aa2…d7d0Keeps 21% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7887…2cf0Keeps 23% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.