In backtest, only 1% of 0xa98a…3b92's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 1% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 1% only partly; the −$164.61 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xa98a…3b92's 146 buys across 19 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$164.61. The leader lost $1,500 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$1,338, slippage $0.00 and fees $3.35. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $142.76 at once across 4 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 107 estimated: 21 high · 70 medium · 16 low · 37 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$209.20; 1 min: −$204.04; 5 min: −$164.61; 30 min: −$18.77. Max drawdown −$165.49 (5 min, Oct 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 29 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 30 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 1 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 2 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 3 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 4 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 5 | −$4.27 | +$0.88 | +$0.88 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 6 | −$104.76 | −$99.61 | −$99.61 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 7 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 8 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 9 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 10 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 11 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 12 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 13 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 14 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 15 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 16 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 17 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 18 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 19 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 20 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 21 | −$187.79 | −$182.64 | −$143.20 | +$2.63 |
| Oct 22 | −$209.20 | −$204.04 | −$164.61 | −$18.77 |
| Oct 23 | −$209.20 | −$204.04 | −$164.61 | −$18.77 |
| Oct 24 | −$209.20 | −$204.04 | −$164.61 | −$18.77 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$209.20 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 1 min | −$204.04 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$164.61 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 30 min | −$18.77 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$1,500
- Delay helped+$1,338
- Slippage$0.00
- Fees (buys $3.35 · sells $0.00)−$3.35
- Follower PnL−$164.61
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 146 | −$164.61 | −61.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf22e…0c2cLeader lost money at this size
- 0x0dcd…9910Leader lost money at this size
- 0xe744…f96eKeeps 60% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.