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In backtest, only 19% of 0xb37a…f1b1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Geopolitics 0xb37aa8834f9baefc6fb3312f59df8ddf0348f1b1 Profile on Polymarket

Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the −$1,707 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xb37a…f1b1's 659 buys across 147 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,707, while the leader made +$5,594 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $6,834, slippage $178.16 and fees $289.06 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,642 at once across 200 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$1,707
Incl. estimates +$2,880
Max drawdown −$2,699
ROI −11.8% on total cost
Returns kept
−30.5%
Leader, same size +$5,594
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$4,642
Incl. estimates $17,409
659 copied buys · $14,408 total cost
Fill rate
19%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 52%
125 filled · 75 partial · 459 no buyers
Backtest score
20/100
659 buys · 147 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 347 estimated: 114 high · 149 medium · 84 low · 174 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$2.7k

Final values: 0 min: −$1,234; 1 min: −$1,281; 5 min: −$1,707; 30 min: −$514.85. Max drawdown −$2,699 (5 min, Oct 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$0.28+$0.28−$1.87+$20.23
Sep 22+$160.62+$119.67+$190.92+$82.80
Sep 23+$232.02+$190.02+$196.14+$82.80
Sep 24−$1,733−$1,724−$1,534−$1,583
Sep 25−$1,685−$1,676−$1,534−$1,583
Sep 26−$1,685−$1,676−$1,534−$1,583
Sep 27−$1,692−$1,683−$1,534−$1,583
Sep 28−$1,692−$1,683−$1,534−$1,684
Sep 29−$1,711−$1,723−$1,657−$1,709
Sep 30−$1,552−$1,587−$1,652−$1,627
Oct 1−$1,552−$1,587−$1,652−$1,627
Oct 2−$1,551−$1,585−$1,651−$1,627
Oct 3−$1,574−$1,608−$1,651−$1,627
Oct 4−$1,574−$1,608−$1,651−$1,628
Oct 5−$1,593−$1,628−$1,690−$1,631
Oct 6−$1,634−$1,668−$1,636−$1,631
Oct 7−$1,719−$1,677−$1,645−$1,629
Oct 8−$1,553−$1,476−$1,584−$1,675
Oct 9−$1,752−$1,679−$1,782−$1,914
Oct 10−$1,774−$1,672−$1,848−$2,116
Oct 11−$1,409−$1,308−$1,575−$2,032
Oct 12−$1,151−$1,047−$1,293−$1,832
Oct 13−$1,020−$919.72−$1,175−$2,240
Oct 14−$946.31−$843.10−$1,096−$2,142
Oct 15−$946.31−$843.10−$1,106−$2,142
Oct 16−$776.32−$697.50−$1,277−$690.14
Oct 17−$776.32−$697.50−$1,275−$690.14
Oct 18−$724.87−$677.27−$1,275−$690.14
Oct 19−$2,154−$1,936−$2,379−$847.56
Oct 20−$2,154−$2,109−$2,495−$840.61
Oct 21−$2,154−$2,117−$2,503−$836.11
Oct 22−$1,500−$1,525−$2,033−$578.98
Oct 23−$1,179−$1,237−$1,674−$450.30
Oct 24−$1,181−$1,235−$1,671−$440.26
Oct 25−$1,234−$1,281−$1,707−$514.85
Oct 26−$1,234−$1,281−$1,707−$514.85

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$1,234−22.1%21%
1 min−$1,281−22.9%20%
5 min (selected)−$1,707−30.5%19%
30 min−$514.85−9.2%15%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$5,594
  2. Delay cost−$6,834
  3. Slippage−$178.16
  4. Fees (buys $214.34 · sells $74.72)−$289.06
  5. Follower PnL−$1,707

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Geopolitics314+$966.26+26.5%
Politics206−$1,365−22.3%
Sports51−$1,457−62.3%
Culture45+$264.28+43.0%
Tech29−$80.61−4.9%
Weather14−$34.68−70.4%

Data version 12087 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 170 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Geopolitics traders

See the full Geopolitics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.