In backtest, only 15% of 0xf01a…f231's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 15% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the +$741.51 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xf01a…f231's 299 buys across 123 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 71% of the leader's returns: +$741.51 against +$1,037 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 15% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $164.28, slippage $102.58 and fees $28.86. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,039 at once across 69 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 155 estimated: 61 high · 51 medium · 43 low · 93 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$906.24; 1 min: +$834.02; 5 min: +$741.51; 30 min: +$823.67. Max drawdown −$175.26 (5 min, Oct 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$8.72 | +$9.53 | +$12.29 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 23 | +$15.12 | +$9.53 | +$12.29 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 24 | +$24.47 | +$10.18 | +$12.93 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 25 | +$24.47 | +$10.18 | +$12.93 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 26 | +$29.97 | +$10.18 | +$12.93 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 27 | +$29.97 | +$10.18 | +$12.93 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 28 | +$27.91 | +$8.12 | +$10.73 | +$5.97 |
| Sep 29 | +$41.71 | +$22.55 | +$25.38 | +$26.19 |
| Sep 30 | +$274.40 | +$152.13 | +$100.23 | +$402.30 |
| Oct 1 | +$298.60 | +$171.78 | +$152.06 | +$447.69 |
| Oct 2 | +$298.60 | +$181.58 | +$156.92 | +$447.69 |
| Oct 3 | +$299.94 | +$181.78 | +$157.12 | +$448.55 |
| Oct 4 | +$269.61 | +$183.10 | +$156.16 | +$448.55 |
| Oct 5 | +$275.70 | +$189.19 | +$156.65 | +$448.55 |
| Oct 6 | +$287.13 | +$200.62 | +$156.65 | +$449.57 |
| Oct 7 | +$280.54 | +$197.09 | +$142.42 | +$449.57 |
| Oct 8 | +$319.51 | +$197.28 | +$142.42 | +$449.57 |
| Oct 9 | +$319.51 | +$197.28 | +$142.42 | +$449.57 |
| Oct 10 | +$319.91 | +$197.69 | +$142.83 | +$449.57 |
| Oct 11 | +$322.40 | +$199.56 | +$147.02 | +$452.44 |
| Oct 12 | +$329.00 | +$206.12 | +$153.58 | +$452.44 |
| Oct 13 | +$409.63 | +$239.17 | +$154.11 | +$477.08 |
| Oct 14 | +$409.63 | +$239.17 | +$154.11 | +$477.08 |
| Oct 15 | +$409.63 | +$239.17 | +$154.11 | +$477.08 |
| Oct 16 | +$440.55 | +$269.97 | +$184.52 | +$477.12 |
| Oct 17 | +$440.55 | +$269.97 | +$184.52 | +$581.16 |
| Oct 18 | +$438.79 | +$281.84 | +$189.50 | +$621.91 |
| Oct 19 | +$438.79 | +$281.84 | +$189.50 | +$621.91 |
| Oct 20 | +$401.48 | +$298.92 | +$206.57 | +$620.12 |
| Oct 21 | +$405.48 | +$306.26 | +$223.60 | +$638.64 |
| Oct 22 | +$748.67 | +$671.57 | +$591.14 | +$802.39 |
| Oct 23 | +$906.20 | +$833.79 | +$741.28 | +$823.67 |
| Oct 24 | +$906.44 | +$834.02 | +$741.51 | +$823.67 |
| Oct 25 | +$906.24 | +$834.02 | +$741.51 | +$823.67 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$906.24 | 87.4% | 16% |
| 1 min | +$834.02 | 80.4% | 15% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$741.51 | 71.5% | 15% |
| 30 min | +$823.67 | 79.4% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,037
- Delay cost−$164.28
- Slippage−$102.58
- Fees (buys $19.97 · sells $8.89)−$28.86
- Follower PnL+$741.51
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 201 | +$575.82 | +15.0% |
| Crypto | 43 | +$28.11 | +10.0% |
| Politics | 40 | +$110.94 | +13.1% |
| Finance | 11 | +$26.77 | +13.4% |
| Tech | 3 | +$0.83 | +2.3% |
| Economy | 1 | −$0.96 | −63.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Geopolitics traders
- 0x0b65…293eKeeps 80% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb26c…0eb0Keeps 38% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd5cc…dea4Keeps 24% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdc4b…dbcaKeeps 12% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcd23…5f5dLeader lost money at this size
- 0x2aa2…daf6Keeps 8% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Geopolitics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.