In backtest, only 4% of 0xb7cd…6827's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 4% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 2% only partly; the −$0.96 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xb7cd…6827's 1,394 buys across 289 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$0.96, while the leader made +$24.48 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $22.19, slippage $1.54 and fees $1.71 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,858 at once across 81 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 978 estimated: 34 high · 892 medium · 52 low · 353 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$4.70; 1 min: −$4.69; 5 min: −$0.96; 30 min: −$3.40. Max drawdown −$7.25 (5 min, Oct 15). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | +$0.60 | +$0.60 | $0.00 | +$0.24 |
| Sep 26 | +$0.60 | +$0.60 | $0.00 | +$0.24 |
| Sep 27 | +$0.60 | +$0.60 | $0.00 | +$0.24 |
| Sep 28 | +$0.60 | +$0.60 | $0.00 | +$0.24 |
| Sep 29 | +$0.64 | +$0.64 | $0.00 | +$0.24 |
| Sep 30 | +$0.68 | +$0.68 | +$0.04 | +$0.24 |
| Oct 1 | +$0.83 | +$0.83 | +$0.08 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 2 | +$0.83 | +$0.83 | +$0.08 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 3 | +$0.83 | +$0.83 | +$0.08 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 4 | +$1.00 | +$0.92 | +$0.17 | −$1.04 |
| Oct 5 | +$1.10 | +$1.02 | +$0.17 | −$1.04 |
| Oct 6 | +$1.21 | +$1.13 | +$0.36 | −$0.95 |
| Oct 7 | −$11.82 | −$12.35 | −$3.99 | −$5.81 |
| Oct 8 | −$11.32 | −$11.67 | −$3.26 | −$5.81 |
| Oct 9 | −$11.32 | −$11.67 | −$3.26 | −$5.81 |
| Oct 10 | −$11.32 | −$11.67 | −$3.26 | −$5.81 |
| Oct 11 | −$10.64 | −$11.05 | −$2.54 | −$5.52 |
| Oct 12 | −$12.53 | −$12.93 | −$2.54 | −$5.52 |
| Oct 13 | −$11.10 | −$11.47 | −$2.40 | −$6.05 |
| Oct 14 | −$11.08 | −$11.45 | −$2.40 | −$6.05 |
| Oct 15 | −$10.94 | −$11.32 | −$6.76 | −$6.89 |
| Oct 16 | −$10.76 | −$11.23 | −$6.66 | −$6.89 |
| Oct 17 | −$10.76 | −$11.23 | −$6.66 | −$6.89 |
| Oct 18 | −$10.73 | −$11.20 | −$6.63 | −$6.89 |
| Oct 19 | −$10.39 | −$10.86 | −$6.65 | −$6.89 |
| Oct 20 | −$8.54 | −$7.73 | −$2.67 | −$6.64 |
| Oct 21 | −$8.54 | −$7.73 | −$2.67 | −$6.64 |
| Oct 22 | −$7.61 | −$6.97 | −$2.11 | −$6.36 |
| Oct 23 | −$5.45 | −$4.70 | −$0.21 | −$3.59 |
| Oct 24 | −$4.69 | −$4.67 | −$0.96 | −$3.40 |
| Oct 25 | −$4.70 | −$4.69 | −$0.96 | −$3.40 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$4.70 | −19.2% | 5% |
| 1 min | −$4.69 | −19.2% | 5% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$0.96 | −3.9% | 4% |
| 30 min | −$3.40 | −13.9% | 2% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$24.48
- Delay cost−$22.19
- Slippage−$1.54
- Fees (buys $1.55 · sells $0.16)−$1.71
- Follower PnL−$0.96
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1,394 | −$0.96 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1465…7072Leader lost money at this size
- 0x1c4f…2852Leader lost money at this size
- 0x3d1c…e45cLeader lost money at this size
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.