In backtest, only 9% of 0x2aa2…daf6's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 9% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$311.96 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x2aa2…daf6's 82 buys across 16 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 8% of the leader's returns: +$311.96 against +$3,711 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $3,386, slippage $11.22 and fees $1.40. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $595.62 at once across 14 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 63 estimated: 6 high · 46 medium · 11 low · 12 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$445.15; 1 min: +$412.71; 5 min: +$311.96; 30 min: +$1,160. Max drawdown −$5.31 (5 min, Oct 5). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 23 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 24 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 25 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 26 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 27 | +$2.04 | +$0.70 | +$0.10 | +$5.70 |
| Sep 28 | +$6.93 | +$0.48 | +$0.10 | +$0.33 |
| Sep 29 | +$188.59 | +$178.00 | +$88.25 | +$134.45 |
| Sep 30 | +$230.54 | +$219.89 | +$131.95 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 1 | +$230.91 | +$220.06 | +$131.95 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 2 | +$232.49 | +$221.64 | +$131.95 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 3 | +$232.49 | +$221.64 | +$131.95 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 4 | +$232.49 | +$221.64 | +$131.95 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 5 | +$227.18 | +$216.34 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 6 | +$227.18 | +$216.34 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 7 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 8 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 9 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 10 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 11 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 12 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 13 | +$227.28 | +$216.44 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 14 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 15 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 16 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 17 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 18 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 19 | +$227.27 | +$216.42 | +$126.75 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 20 | +$227.27 | +$216.43 | +$126.76 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 21 | +$227.27 | +$216.43 | +$126.76 | +$261.29 |
| Oct 22 | +$247.12 | +$216.43 | +$126.76 | +$992.61 |
| Oct 23 | +$445.17 | +$414.65 | +$313.90 | +$1,160 |
| Oct 24 | +$445.15 | +$412.71 | +$311.96 | +$1,160 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$445.15 | 12.0% | 16% |
| 1 min | +$412.71 | 11.1% | 13% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$311.96 | 8.4% | 9% |
| 30 min | +$1,160 | 31.3% | 15% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,711
- Delay cost−$3,386
- Slippage−$11.22
- Fees (buys $1.37 · sells $0.03)−$1.40
- Follower PnL+$311.96
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 72 | +$319.09 | +42.5% |
| Politics | 10 | −$7.13 | −3.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Geopolitics traders
- 0x0b65…293eKeeps 80% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf01a…f231Keeps 71% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb26c…0eb0Keeps 38% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb37a…f1b1Keeps −31% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb8fe…ce76Leader lost money at this size
- 0xded8…ca0fLeader lost money at this size
See the full Geopolitics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.