In backtest, only 23% of 0x092b…7932's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 23% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$13.91 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x092b…7932's 31 buys across 6 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$13.91. The leader lost $15.98 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$31.17, slippage $0.25 and fees $1.03. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $600.50 at once across 10 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 23 estimated: 0 high · 22 medium · 1 low · 1 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3.08; 1 min: +$3.11; 5 min: +$13.91; 30 min: +$537.79. Max drawdown −$0.29 (5 min, Sep 28). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | −$0.12 | −$0.12 | −$0.17 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 25 | −$0.12 | −$0.12 | −$0.17 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 26 | −$0.14 | −$0.12 | −$0.17 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 27 | −$0.14 | −$0.12 | −$0.17 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 28 | −$2.44 | −$2.41 | −$0.29 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 29 | −$2.44 | −$2.41 | +$1.26 | −$1.13 |
| Sep 30 | +$3.01 | +$3.04 | +$6.73 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 1 | +$3.01 | +$3.04 | +$6.73 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 2 | +$3.01 | +$3.04 | +$6.73 | −$1.13 |
| Oct 3 | +$3.08 | +$3.11 | +$13.91 | +$4.95 |
| Oct 4 | +$3.08 | +$3.11 | +$13.91 | +$537.79 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3.08 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
| 1 min | +$3.11 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$13.91 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 23% |
| 30 min | +$537.79 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 23% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$15.98
- Delay helped+$31.17
- Slippage−$0.25
- Fees (buys $0.93 · sells $0.10)−$1.03
- Follower PnL+$13.91
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 13 | +$7.02 | +1.0% |
| Economy | 12 | −$0.29 | −0.3% |
| Crypto | 5 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 1 | +$7.18 | +7.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1fee…ed5eLeader lost money at this size
- 0x9d84…1344Leader lost money at this size
- 0xa4b3…87b8Keeps 0% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.