In backtest, only 38% of 0x614d…1546's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional8 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:13 UTC.
Only 38% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 23% only partly; the +$26,465 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x614d…1546's 1,513 buys across 70 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$26,465 — more than the leader's +$21,449 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (123.4%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$5,918, slippage helped by +$66.84 and fees $968.81. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $37,237 at once across 911 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 799 estimated: 365 high · 324 medium · 110 low · 130 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$27,485; 1 min: +$27,058; 5 min: +$26,465; 30 min: +$21,416. Max drawdown −$2,521 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$22.75 | +$24.09 | +$9.83 | +$1.11 |
| Sep 23 | −$76.49 | −$73.98 | −$7.69 | −$173.88 |
| Sep 24 | −$76.49 | −$73.98 | −$7.69 | −$173.88 |
| Sep 25 | −$152.81 | −$127.10 | −$36.87 | −$299.54 |
| Sep 26 | −$152.81 | −$127.10 | −$36.87 | −$299.54 |
| Sep 27 | −$175.13 | −$152.65 | −$67.37 | −$295.97 |
| Sep 28 | −$24.28 | +$2.74 | +$8.02 | −$216.39 |
| Sep 29 | −$708.31 | −$650.41 | −$811.16 | −$759.95 |
| Sep 30 | −$630.73 | −$619.82 | −$813.92 | −$710.33 |
| Oct 1 | −$630.73 | −$619.82 | −$813.92 | −$710.33 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,151 | +$574.85 | −$153.91 | +$122.56 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,340 | +$723.34 | −$62.59 | +$188.26 |
| Oct 4 | +$4,710 | +$3,804 | +$2,319 | +$1,439 |
| Oct 5 | +$4,688 | +$3,831 | +$2,351 | +$1,455 |
| Oct 6 | +$4,748 | +$4,048 | +$2,605 | +$1,626 |
| Oct 7 | +$4,817 | +$3,996 | +$2,572 | +$1,566 |
| Oct 8 | +$4,829 | +$4,008 | +$2,577 | +$1,550 |
| Oct 9 | +$5,114 | +$4,311 | +$2,834 | +$1,671 |
| Oct 10 | +$5,004 | +$4,210 | +$2,756 | +$1,662 |
| Oct 11 | +$5,023 | +$4,262 | +$2,776 | +$1,701 |
| Oct 12 | +$5,106 | +$4,362 | +$2,872 | +$1,780 |
| Oct 13 | +$5,125 | +$4,327 | +$2,810 | +$1,743 |
| Oct 14 | +$5,099 | +$4,343 | +$2,831 | +$1,751 |
| Oct 15 | +$4,785 | +$4,055 | +$2,871 | +$1,820 |
| Oct 16 | +$4,680 | +$3,938 | +$2,763 | +$1,803 |
| Oct 17 | +$4,654 | +$3,931 | +$2,767 | +$1,803 |
| Oct 18 | +$4,560 | +$3,822 | +$2,757 | +$1,802 |
| Oct 19 | +$4,549 | +$3,824 | +$2,729 | +$1,787 |
| Oct 20 | +$4,552 | +$3,847 | +$2,741 | +$1,814 |
| Oct 21 | +$4,670 | +$3,967 | +$2,851 | +$1,887 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,643 | +$3,965 | +$2,847 | +$1,884 |
| Oct 23 | +$2,391 | +$1,798 | +$1,077 | +$1,563 |
| Oct 24 | +$2,370 | +$1,751 | +$1,014 | +$1,523 |
| Oct 25 | +$27,509 | +$27,062 | +$26,481 | +$21,437 |
| Oct 26 | +$27,485 | +$27,058 | +$26,465 | +$21,416 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$27,485 | 100%+ (Exactly 128.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 48% |
| 1 min | +$27,058 | 100%+ (Exactly 126.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 42% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$26,465 | 100%+ (Exactly 123.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 38% |
| 30 min | +$21,416 | 99.8% | 35% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$21,449
- Delay helped+$5,918
- Slippage helped+$66.84
- Fees (buys $873.40 · sells $95.41)−$968.81
- Follower PnL+$26,465
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,171 | +$27,062 | +49.8% |
| Geopolitics | 234 | −$495.10 | −10.6% |
| Sports | 95 | −$131.80 | −2.9% |
| Tech | 5 | +$29.25 | +20.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc301…66aaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe234…304aBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xff1e…5e2dBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x77c3…00c8Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.