In backtest, only 41% of 0x24c8…23e1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:26 UTC.
Only 41% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the +$43,671 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x24c8…23e1's 2,169 buys across 79 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$43,671 — more than the leader's +$37,568 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (116.3%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$8,300, slippage $250.22 and fees $1,946. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $84,724 at once across 1,166 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 906 estimated: 656 high · 178 medium · 72 low · 354 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$43,274; 1 min: +$42,406; 5 min: +$43,671; 30 min: +$47,832. Max drawdown −$6,332 (5 min, Oct 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | −$4.61 | −$5.73 | −$15.92 | −$4.06 |
| Sep 23 | +$511.83 | +$415.95 | +$496.69 | +$824.33 |
| Sep 24 | +$549.13 | +$559.77 | +$630.78 | +$888.97 |
| Sep 25 | +$551.85 | +$559.77 | +$630.78 | +$882.12 |
| Sep 26 | +$554.95 | +$560.64 | +$630.86 | +$886.42 |
| Sep 27 | +$726.32 | +$758.15 | +$859.04 | +$893.55 |
| Sep 28 | +$691.77 | +$723.60 | +$864.60 | +$818.87 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,133 | +$1,057 | +$1,317 | +$924.05 |
| Sep 30 | +$462.87 | +$490.33 | +$869.71 | +$299.54 |
| Oct 1 | +$452.24 | +$483.02 | +$862.71 | +$299.54 |
| Oct 2 | +$452.24 | +$483.02 | +$862.68 | +$299.51 |
| Oct 3 | +$452.24 | +$483.02 | +$862.68 | +$299.51 |
| Oct 4 | +$20,801 | +$21,129 | +$22,134 | +$19,266 |
| Oct 5 | +$24,586 | +$25,014 | +$27,053 | +$25,892 |
| Oct 6 | +$24,341 | +$24,749 | +$26,760 | +$25,768 |
| Oct 7 | +$24,064 | +$24,426 | +$26,524 | +$25,359 |
| Oct 8 | +$23,853 | +$24,209 | +$26,492 | +$25,315 |
| Oct 9 | +$23,853 | +$24,209 | +$26,492 | +$25,315 |
| Oct 10 | +$23,820 | +$24,187 | +$26,352 | +$25,178 |
| Oct 11 | +$23,708 | +$24,096 | +$26,276 | +$25,178 |
| Oct 12 | +$23,876 | +$24,174 | +$26,512 | +$25,178 |
| Oct 13 | +$24,614 | +$24,512 | +$27,368 | +$25,235 |
| Oct 14 | +$24,361 | +$24,267 | +$27,244 | +$25,071 |
| Oct 15 | +$23,332 | +$23,305 | +$26,612 | +$25,493 |
| Oct 16 | +$23,119 | +$22,990 | +$26,862 | +$28,507 |
| Oct 17 | +$23,108 | +$22,953 | +$26,812 | +$28,383 |
| Oct 18 | +$21,977 | +$21,804 | +$25,939 | +$27,929 |
| Oct 19 | +$22,196 | +$22,100 | +$26,564 | +$28,416 |
| Oct 20 | +$22,198 | +$21,959 | +$26,666 | +$30,973 |
| Oct 21 | +$25,087 | +$24,301 | +$28,521 | +$31,946 |
| Oct 22 | +$26,340 | +$25,625 | +$30,375 | +$33,541 |
| Oct 23 | +$26,479 | +$26,114 | +$31,015 | +$33,853 |
| Oct 24 | +$30,315 | +$29,171 | +$32,424 | +$36,488 |
| Oct 25 | +$44,132 | +$43,263 | +$43,948 | +$47,901 |
| Oct 26 | +$43,274 | +$42,406 | +$43,671 | +$47,832 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$43,274 | 100%+ (Exactly 115.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 45% |
| 1 min | +$42,406 | 100%+ (Exactly 112.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 43% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$43,671 | 100%+ (Exactly 116.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 41% |
| 30 min | +$47,832 | 100%+ (Exactly 127.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 39% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$37,568
- Delay helped+$8,300
- Slippage−$250.22
- Fees (buys $1,805 · sells $141.37)−$1,946
- Follower PnL+$43,671
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,715 | +$43,210 | +50.1% |
| Sports | 388 | +$109.81 | +1.4% |
| Economy | 57 | +$351.33 | +41.9% |
| Geopolitics | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Culture | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 2 | −$0.36 | −0.4% |
| Tech | 1 | +$0.42 | +1.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc301…66aaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe234…304aBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xff1e…5e2dBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x77c3…00c8Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.