In backtest, only 3% of 0x1e9c…2ec7's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 3% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 3% only partly; the +$59.71 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1e9c…2ec7's 271 buys across 16 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$59.71. The leader lost $30.33 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$83.55, slippage helped by +$21.72 and fees $15.23. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $787.19 at once across 16 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 32 estimated: 0 high · 29 medium · 3 low · 229 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$35.07; 1 min: +$86.12; 5 min: +$59.71; 30 min: +$54.70. Max drawdown −$34.97 (5 min, Sep 30). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | −$17.23 | $0.00 | +$22.30 |
| Sep 23 | −$88.94 | −$41.11 | −$25.79 | +$23.16 |
| Sep 24 | −$88.94 | −$41.11 | −$25.78 | +$23.16 |
| Sep 25 | −$88.94 | −$41.11 | −$25.78 | +$23.16 |
| Sep 26 | −$88.94 | −$41.11 | −$25.78 | +$23.16 |
| Sep 27 | −$88.94 | −$41.11 | −$25.78 | +$23.16 |
| Sep 28 | −$9.87 | +$47.72 | +$86.39 | +$74.25 |
| Sep 29 | +$40.21 | +$91.26 | +$94.67 | +$57.77 |
| Sep 30 | +$35.07 | +$86.12 | +$59.71 | +$54.70 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$35.07 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 2% |
| 1 min | +$86.12 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$59.71 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 3% |
| 30 min | +$54.70 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 2% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$30.33
- Delay helped+$83.55
- Slippage helped+$21.72
- Fees (buys $10.11 · sells $5.12)−$15.23
- Follower PnL+$59.71
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 249 | +$57.91 | +13.7% |
| Geopolitics | 22 | +$1.80 | +0.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x226b…cad6Keeps −14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x27b0…209bKeeps −202% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x3eae…e2edLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.