In backtest, only 13% of 0x1f0a…f7aa's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:10 UTC.
Only 13% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$426.09 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1f0a…f7aa's 1,883 buys across 485 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$426.09, while the leader made +$1,871 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $2,105, slippage helped by +$18.40 and fees $210.87 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $11,614 at once across 403 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,054 estimated: 432 high · 401 medium · 221 low · 562 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$612.29; 1 min: −$385.23; 5 min: −$426.09; 30 min: +$1,464. Max drawdown −$522.41 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$24.84 | +$10.44 | +$11.20 | +$7.23 |
| Sep 22 | +$25.45 | +$11.76 | +$6.30 | −$13.26 |
| Sep 23 | +$15.01 | +$12.18 | +$6.72 | −$13.26 |
| Sep 24 | +$35.50 | +$2.94 | +$8.09 | +$15.17 |
| Sep 25 | +$0.06 | −$26.14 | +$8.09 | +$17.69 |
| Sep 26 | −$96.35 | −$124.19 | −$42.77 | +$17.69 |
| Sep 27 | −$157.28 | −$130.11 | −$42.77 | +$17.62 |
| Sep 28 | −$162.57 | −$132.04 | −$42.77 | +$17.59 |
| Sep 29 | −$215.22 | −$131.12 | −$43.13 | +$17.09 |
| Sep 30 | −$213.99 | −$129.32 | −$41.53 | +$17.09 |
| Oct 1 | −$208.81 | −$128.28 | −$41.27 | +$17.09 |
| Oct 2 | −$208.94 | −$128.28 | −$41.09 | +$18.47 |
| Oct 3 | −$200.25 | −$115.05 | −$21.18 | +$22.25 |
| Oct 4 | −$235.87 | −$165.88 | −$84.98 | +$25.29 |
| Oct 5 | −$244.18 | −$156.47 | −$63.25 | +$36.23 |
| Oct 6 | −$284.85 | −$202.32 | −$96.73 | +$9.04 |
| Oct 7 | −$285.93 | −$202.98 | −$97.61 | +$9.25 |
| Oct 8 | −$203.63 | −$109.12 | −$121.33 | +$1,627 |
| Oct 9 | −$386.73 | −$336.43 | −$353.25 | +$1,480 |
| Oct 10 | −$367.92 | −$316.37 | −$348.21 | +$1,479 |
| Oct 11 | −$343.02 | −$287.55 | −$340.14 | +$1,469 |
| Oct 12 | −$339.51 | −$287.17 | −$340.14 | +$1,470 |
| Oct 13 | −$387.41 | −$327.45 | −$379.49 | +$1,411 |
| Oct 14 | −$396.34 | −$327.30 | −$379.56 | +$1,411 |
| Oct 15 | −$426.72 | −$343.31 | −$384.09 | +$1,400 |
| Oct 16 | −$448.44 | −$337.66 | −$382.50 | +$1,400 |
| Oct 17 | −$405.50 | −$313.29 | −$375.12 | +$1,470 |
| Oct 18 | −$390.16 | −$299.74 | −$358.73 | +$1,483 |
| Oct 19 | −$390.97 | −$300.08 | −$361.64 | +$1,476 |
| Oct 20 | −$412.81 | −$303.34 | −$376.07 | +$1,480 |
| Oct 21 | −$413.04 | −$307.18 | −$377.21 | +$1,480 |
| Oct 22 | −$462.29 | −$307.83 | −$378.24 | +$1,514 |
| Oct 23 | −$469.49 | −$326.98 | −$392.49 | +$1,516 |
| Oct 24 | −$503.42 | −$333.29 | −$410.73 | +$1,521 |
| Oct 25 | −$613.15 | −$390.05 | −$381.40 | +$1,466 |
| Oct 26 | −$612.29 | −$385.23 | −$426.09 | +$1,464 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$612.29 | −32.7% | 17% |
| 1 min | −$385.23 | −20.6% | 14% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$426.09 | −22.8% | 13% |
| 30 min | +$1,464 | 78.1% | 11% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,871
- Delay cost−$2,105
- Slippage helped+$18.40
- Fees (buys $135.19 · sells $75.68)−$210.87
- Follower PnL−$426.09
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,628 | −$350.03 | −1.4% |
| Geopolitics | 128 | +$18.62 | +1.4% |
| Finance | 61 | −$0.52 | −0.5% |
| Culture | 40 | −$93.97 | −10.4% |
| Other | 11 | −$0.20 | −0.6% |
| Sports | 10 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Crypto | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Economy | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x2348…ec52Leader lost money at this size
- 0x2c39…56dcLeader lost money at this size
- 0x6cfc…a5c2Keeps −527% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.