In backtest, only 1% of 0x1f9e…4f1a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 1% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the −$47.58 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1f9e…4f1a's 527 buys across 384 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$47.58, while the leader made +$1,105 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,138, slippage $3.59 and fees $10.64 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $587.94 at once across 32 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 166 estimated: 0 high · 92 medium · 74 low · 344 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$1,545; 1 min: −$92.23; 5 min: −$47.58; 30 min: +$54.80. Max drawdown −$96.41 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$77.86 | −$12.53 | −$14.30 | −$14.65 |
| Sep 22 | −$91.66 | −$12.12 | −$14.30 | −$14.65 |
| Sep 23 | −$125.94 | −$13.92 | −$14.30 | −$14.65 |
| Sep 24 | −$163.89 | −$14.56 | −$14.41 | +$34.34 |
| Sep 25 | −$169.10 | −$17.16 | −$25.33 | +$38.17 |
| Sep 26 | −$148.70 | −$12.17 | −$20.22 | +$38.17 |
| Sep 27 | −$96.91 | +$25.61 | +$7.83 | +$59.06 |
| Sep 28 | −$108.15 | +$25.61 | +$6.98 | +$56.51 |
| Sep 29 | −$122.25 | +$18.33 | −$0.30 | +$56.14 |
| Sep 30 | −$115.75 | +$26.19 | +$20.22 | +$56.14 |
| Oct 1 | −$163.33 | −$19.81 | −$2.78 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 2 | −$284.12 | −$123.24 | −$75.17 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 3 | −$287.34 | −$123.24 | −$75.17 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 4 | −$343.44 | −$124.27 | −$76.20 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 5 | −$325.94 | −$90.83 | −$47.53 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,541 | −$92.23 | −$47.53 | +$54.82 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,541 | −$92.23 | −$47.53 | +$54.80 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,545 | −$92.23 | −$47.58 | +$54.80 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$1,545 | −140% | 2% |
| 1 min | −$92.23 | −8.3% | 1% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$47.58 | −4.3% | 1% |
| 30 min | +$54.80 | 5.0% | 1% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,105
- Delay cost−$1,138
- Slippage−$3.59
- Fees (buys $10.57 · sells $0.07)−$10.64
- Follower PnL−$47.58
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 297 | +$25.86 | +21.2% |
| Politics | 168 | −$59.21 | −10.6% |
| Sports | 27 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 13 | −$14.08 | −57.5% |
| Tech | 12 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Culture | 10 | −$0.14 | −0.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Economy traders
- 0x2b77…9ec3Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbe89…b88cKeeps 58% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa53b…4021Keeps 52% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9727…9157Leader lost money at this size
- 0x0ffc…8236Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd06f…d4a6Keeps 27% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Economy copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.