In backtest, only 11% of 0x34e8…065d's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 11% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 5% only partly; the +$5.94 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x34e8…065d's 251 buys across 133 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 20% of the leader's returns: +$5.94 against +$30.34 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $24.11, slippage helped by +$0.16 and fees $0.45. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $533.41 at once across 41 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 160 estimated: 16 high · 127 medium · 17 low · 61 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$7.07; 1 min: +$6.34; 5 min: +$5.94; 30 min: +$4.66. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$0.56 | +$0.46 | +$0.36 | +$0.19 |
| Sep 22 | +$0.66 | +$0.55 | +$0.36 | +$0.19 |
| Sep 23 | +$1.22 | +$1.11 | +$0.64 | +$0.71 |
| Sep 24 | +$1.31 | +$1.11 | +$0.64 | +$0.71 |
| Sep 25 | +$1.46 | +$1.26 | +$0.92 | +$0.81 |
| Sep 26 | +$1.56 | +$1.36 | +$1.29 | +$0.81 |
| Sep 27 | +$1.67 | +$1.45 | +$1.38 | +$0.81 |
| Sep 28 | +$2.51 | +$2.29 | +$2.13 | +$0.81 |
| Sep 29 | +$2.51 | +$2.29 | +$2.13 | +$0.81 |
| Sep 30 | +$2.60 | +$2.29 | +$2.13 | +$0.91 |
| Oct 1 | +$2.88 | +$2.57 | +$2.32 | +$1.05 |
| Oct 2 | +$3.10 | +$2.79 | +$2.95 | +$3.03 |
| Oct 3 | +$3.10 | +$2.79 | +$2.95 | +$3.03 |
| Oct 4 | +$3.10 | +$2.79 | +$2.95 | +$3.03 |
| Oct 5 | +$3.19 | +$2.79 | +$2.96 | +$3.27 |
| Oct 6 | +$3.19 | +$2.79 | +$2.96 | +$3.27 |
| Oct 7 | +$3.25 | +$2.84 | +$3.24 | +$3.27 |
| Oct 8 | +$3.66 | +$3.26 | +$3.73 | +$3.27 |
| Oct 9 | +$3.75 | +$3.26 | +$3.92 | +$3.48 |
| Oct 10 | +$3.86 | +$3.26 | +$3.92 | +$3.48 |
| Oct 11 | +$3.86 | +$3.26 | +$3.92 | +$3.49 |
| Oct 12 | +$4.14 | +$3.45 | +$4.01 | +$3.49 |
| Oct 13 | +$4.51 | +$3.91 | +$4.65 | +$3.68 |
| Oct 14 | +$4.70 | +$4.10 | +$4.65 | +$3.68 |
| Oct 15 | +$4.89 | +$4.39 | +$4.75 | +$3.68 |
| Oct 16 | +$5.08 | +$4.57 | +$4.84 | +$4.18 |
| Oct 17 | +$5.53 | +$4.89 | +$4.88 | +$4.28 |
| Oct 18 | +$5.75 | +$5.12 | +$4.88 | +$4.28 |
| Oct 19 | +$5.84 | +$5.12 | +$4.88 | +$4.28 |
| Oct 20 | +$6.36 | +$5.81 | +$5.58 | +$4.28 |
| Oct 21 | +$6.60 | +$6.05 | +$5.92 | +$4.29 |
| Oct 22 | +$6.69 | +$6.05 | +$5.92 | +$4.29 |
| Oct 23 | +$6.88 | +$6.14 | +$5.92 | +$4.29 |
| Oct 24 | +$6.99 | +$6.26 | +$5.94 | +$4.56 |
| Oct 25 | +$7.07 | +$6.34 | +$5.94 | +$4.66 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$7.07 | 23.3% | 18% |
| 1 min | +$6.34 | 20.9% | 15% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$5.94 | 19.6% | 11% |
| 30 min | +$4.66 | 15.3% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$30.34
- Delay cost−$24.11
- Slippage helped+$0.16
- Fees (buys $0.45 · sells $0.00)−$0.45
- Follower PnL+$5.94
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 251 | +$5.94 | +0.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xaad0…f61dKeeps 10% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8611…d340Keeps 18% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf70e…81dfKeeps 16% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.