In backtest, only 10% of 0x8611…d340's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 10% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the +$8.29 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x8611…d340's 383 buys across 156 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 18% of the leader's returns: +$8.29 against +$45.17 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $36.54, slippage helped by +$0.30 and fees $0.64. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $600.00 at once across 61 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 259 estimated: 31 high · 195 medium · 33 low · 84 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$10.84; 1 min: +$9.63; 5 min: +$8.29; 30 min: +$5.93. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$1.00 | +$0.72 | +$0.59 | +$0.47 |
| Sep 22 | +$1.00 | +$0.72 | +$0.59 | +$0.47 |
| Sep 23 | +$1.42 | +$1.14 | +$0.59 | +$0.47 |
| Sep 24 | +$1.83 | +$1.53 | +$0.72 | +$0.65 |
| Sep 25 | +$1.92 | +$1.62 | +$0.82 | +$0.74 |
| Sep 26 | +$2.11 | +$1.81 | +$1.19 | +$1.12 |
| Sep 27 | +$2.78 | +$2.48 | +$1.60 | +$1.24 |
| Sep 28 | +$2.88 | +$2.58 | +$1.69 | +$1.24 |
| Sep 29 | +$2.88 | +$2.58 | +$1.69 | +$1.24 |
| Sep 30 | +$3.35 | +$3.04 | +$2.55 | +$2.13 |
| Oct 1 | +$3.74 | +$3.51 | +$2.74 | +$2.32 |
| Oct 2 | +$3.85 | +$3.60 | +$2.87 | +$2.32 |
| Oct 3 | +$3.85 | +$3.60 | +$2.87 | +$2.33 |
| Oct 4 | +$3.95 | +$3.60 | +$2.87 | +$2.33 |
| Oct 5 | +$3.95 | +$3.65 | +$2.93 | +$2.35 |
| Oct 6 | +$4.23 | +$3.93 | +$3.21 | +$2.35 |
| Oct 7 | +$4.23 | +$3.93 | +$3.21 | +$2.35 |
| Oct 8 | +$4.23 | +$3.93 | +$3.21 | +$2.54 |
| Oct 9 | +$4.23 | +$3.93 | +$3.21 | +$2.69 |
| Oct 10 | +$5.54 | +$5.24 | +$4.52 | +$2.69 |
| Oct 11 | +$5.92 | +$5.24 | +$4.52 | +$2.69 |
| Oct 12 | +$6.32 | +$5.71 | +$4.89 | +$2.78 |
| Oct 13 | +$6.43 | +$5.83 | +$5.00 | +$2.94 |
| Oct 14 | +$6.52 | +$5.92 | +$5.10 | +$3.03 |
| Oct 15 | +$6.85 | +$6.26 | +$5.92 | +$3.43 |
| Oct 16 | +$7.08 | +$6.39 | +$5.96 | +$3.72 |
| Oct 17 | +$7.64 | +$6.95 | +$6.38 | +$4.20 |
| Oct 18 | +$7.82 | +$6.95 | +$6.38 | +$4.42 |
| Oct 19 | +$7.99 | +$7.12 | +$6.48 | +$4.48 |
| Oct 20 | +$8.95 | +$8.08 | +$7.47 | +$5.05 |
| Oct 21 | +$9.43 | +$8.31 | +$7.75 | +$5.47 |
| Oct 22 | +$9.67 | +$8.46 | +$7.99 | +$5.47 |
| Oct 23 | +$10.27 | +$9.06 | +$8.17 | +$5.47 |
| Oct 24 | +$10.63 | +$9.42 | +$8.29 | +$5.93 |
| Oct 25 | +$10.84 | +$9.63 | +$8.29 | +$5.93 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$10.84 | 24.0% | 15% |
| 1 min | +$9.63 | 21.3% | 13% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$8.29 | 18.3% | 10% |
| 30 min | +$5.93 | 13.1% | 10% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$45.17
- Delay cost−$36.54
- Slippage helped+$0.30
- Fees (buys $0.64 · sells $0.00)−$0.64
- Follower PnL+$8.29
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 382 | +$8.29 | +0.2% |
| Weather | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf70e…81dfKeeps 16% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x67ca…93b6Keeps −526% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8320…904eKeeps −63% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.