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In backtest, only 18% of 0x3885…ca77's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Crypto 0x388537259dc9e693c1c9b96fdf07a63f6b7aca77 Profile on Polymarket

Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the −$3,116 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x3885…ca77's 1,230 buys across 98 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,116. The leader lost $2,737 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$6.14, slippage helped by +$21.76 and fees $406.90. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,706 at once across 442 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$3,116
Incl. estimates −$9,085
Max drawdown −$3,368
ROI −11.1% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$2,737
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$5,706
Incl. estimates $10,583
1,230 copied buys · $28,105 total cost
Fill rate
18%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 41%
227 filled · 215 partial · 788 no buyers
Backtest score
20/100
1,230 buys · 98 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 368 estimated: 103 high · 183 medium · 82 low · 557 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$3.4k

Final values: 0 min: −$3,411; 1 min: −$2,872; 5 min: −$3,116; 30 min: −$2,541. Max drawdown −$3,368 (5 min, Oct 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$863.34−$512.34−$375.20−$706.82
Sep 22−$912.67−$558.68−$383.98−$706.82
Sep 23−$1,179−$922.63−$793.28−$832.59
Sep 24−$721.60−$599.39−$552.70−$666.67
Sep 25−$942.22−$824.44−$594.71−$613.98
Sep 26−$962.16−$817.23−$589.11−$613.98
Sep 27−$943.51−$816.82−$588.88−$601.19
Sep 28−$990.53−$822.81−$794.72−$787.39
Sep 29−$1,124−$968.86−$986.51−$773.26
Sep 30−$1,002−$771.45−$789.37−$685.91
Oct 1−$636.05−$669.25−$747.62−$285.14
Oct 2−$644.22−$658.61−$734.57−$289.53
Oct 3−$644.22−$658.61−$734.57−$289.53
Oct 4−$647.61−$658.61−$734.57−$289.53
Oct 5−$647.61−$658.61−$734.57−$289.53
Oct 6−$647.61−$658.61−$734.57−$289.53
Oct 7+$616.61+$368.55+$46.24−$241.19
Oct 8+$566.47+$330.50−$38.90−$44.56
Oct 9+$514.18+$314.68−$53.20−$143.64
Oct 10+$534.01+$328.17−$44.94−$129.26
Oct 11+$547.32+$322.73−$54.88−$113.81
Oct 12+$621.09+$473.65+$61.29−$18.38
Oct 13+$159.70−$17.71−$484.13−$269.38
Oct 14−$594.84−$779.13−$1,075−$623.15
Oct 15−$2,239−$2,184−$2,398−$1,718
Oct 16−$2,272−$2,146−$2,363−$1,487
Oct 17−$2,272−$2,146−$2,363−$1,487
Oct 18−$2,426−$2,305−$2,649−$1,664
Oct 19−$3,055−$2,705−$2,935−$2,406
Oct 20−$3,246−$2,876−$3,099−$2,592
Oct 21−$3,130−$2,756−$2,986−$2,549
Oct 22−$3,456−$2,916−$3,164−$2,593
Oct 23−$3,412−$2,871−$3,124−$2,593
Oct 24−$3,374−$2,853−$3,121−$2,540
Oct 25−$3,411−$2,872−$3,116−$2,541

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,411n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)26%
1 min−$2,872n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)22%
5 min (selected)−$3,116n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)18%
30 min−$2,541n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)15%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$2,737
  2. Delay helped+$6.14
  3. Slippage helped+$21.76
  4. Fees (buys $406.90 · sells $0.00)−$406.90
  5. Follower PnL−$3,116

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Crypto1,230−$3,116−11.1%

Data version 12072 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 17 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Crypto traders

See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.