In backtest, only 26% of 0x44c1…ebc1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 26% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the −$310.99 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x44c1…ebc1's 483 buys across 119 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$310.99, while the leader made +$3,655 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $3,726, slippage $13.64 and fees $226.42 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $8,748 at once across 208 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 285 estimated: 87 high · 154 medium · 44 low · 65 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$610.54; 1 min: +$351.38; 5 min: −$310.99; 30 min: +$421.37. Max drawdown −$932.70 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$19.80 |
| Sep 21 | −$845.03 | −$918.17 | −$759.20 | −$665.90 |
| Sep 22 | −$849.27 | −$918.17 | −$759.20 | −$665.90 |
| Sep 23 | −$848.60 | −$917.73 | −$758.76 | −$665.90 |
| Sep 24 | −$859.36 | −$917.63 | −$758.24 | −$663.15 |
| Sep 25 | −$606.50 | −$645.30 | −$456.50 | −$633.05 |
| Sep 26 | −$610.55 | −$644.79 | −$456.50 | −$633.91 |
| Sep 27 | −$396.01 | −$601.83 | −$413.53 | −$515.90 |
| Sep 28 | −$225.46 | −$546.58 | −$397.44 | −$422.98 |
| Sep 29 | −$215.92 | −$542.77 | −$426.60 | −$509.18 |
| Sep 30 | +$664.93 | +$345.62 | +$185.60 | +$48.11 |
| Oct 1 | +$798.81 | +$340.64 | +$184.48 | +$328.59 |
| Oct 2 | +$802.38 | +$341.67 | +$192.22 | +$335.02 |
| Oct 3 | +$802.38 | +$341.67 | +$200.39 | +$335.02 |
| Oct 4 | +$428.92 | +$64.03 | +$56.49 | +$231.84 |
| Oct 5 | +$543.06 | +$180.08 | +$85.38 | +$224.32 |
| Oct 6 | +$463.57 | +$98.94 | −$9.16 | +$226.46 |
| Oct 7 | +$464.23 | +$98.98 | −$9.16 | +$226.46 |
| Oct 8 | +$444.54 | +$81.47 | −$37.62 | +$192.84 |
| Oct 9 | +$718.86 | +$363.89 | +$127.34 | +$609.57 |
| Oct 10 | +$718.86 | +$363.89 | +$127.34 | +$609.57 |
| Oct 11 | +$719.25 | +$352.49 | +$115.65 | +$609.57 |
| Oct 12 | +$186.77 | −$110.72 | −$434.38 | +$501.72 |
| Oct 13 | +$96.39 | −$144.81 | −$469.17 | +$400.57 |
| Oct 14 | +$228.46 | −$130.92 | −$459.10 | +$573.23 |
| Oct 15 | +$255.95 | −$134.09 | −$463.88 | +$573.23 |
| Oct 16 | +$144.97 | −$234.82 | −$565.58 | +$573.23 |
| Oct 17 | +$41.81 | −$338.02 | −$677.36 | +$630.13 |
| Oct 18 | +$41.81 | −$338.02 | −$677.36 | +$630.13 |
| Oct 19 | +$163.85 | −$256.94 | −$635.12 | +$630.13 |
| Oct 20 | +$157.25 | −$262.94 | −$640.90 | +$630.13 |
| Oct 21 | −$55.30 | −$268.92 | −$650.20 | +$424.38 |
| Oct 22 | −$56.29 | −$268.92 | −$650.20 | +$424.38 |
| Oct 23 | −$109.67 | −$318.17 | −$710.07 | +$338.27 |
| Oct 24 | −$54.24 | −$262.36 | −$721.91 | +$321.11 |
| Oct 25 | +$651.38 | +$390.03 | −$301.29 | +$421.37 |
| Oct 26 | +$610.54 | +$351.38 | −$310.99 | +$421.37 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$610.54 | 16.7% | 35% |
| 1 min | +$351.38 | 9.6% | 28% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$310.99 | −8.5% | 26% |
| 30 min | +$421.37 | 11.5% | 23% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,655
- Delay cost−$3,726
- Slippage−$13.64
- Fees (buys $212.74 · sells $13.68)−$226.42
- Follower PnL−$310.99
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 378 | −$903.28 | −7.0% |
| Culture | 70 | +$66.79 | +11.2% |
| Geopolitics | 14 | −$37.53 | −10.3% |
| Tech | 10 | +$559.87 | +97.9% |
| Sports | 6 | −$2.26 | −13.1% |
| Finance | 5 | +$5.42 | +4.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x67d6…245eKeeps −8% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7f9e…3a0eLeader lost money at this size
- 0x8288…5519Leader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.