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In backtest, only 6% of 0x7447…a16d's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x74471a007ddcc488f6d57b5e86dfb35a8d48a16d Profile on Polymarket

Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:36 UTC.

Only 6% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the −$4,419 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x7447…a16d's 1,986 buys across 73 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$4,419. The leader lost $14,823 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$10,929, slippage helped by +$30.00 and fees $554.49. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $12,472 at once across 430 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$4,419
Incl. estimates −$40,968
Max drawdown −$4,422
ROI −26.8% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$14,823
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$12,472
Incl. estimates $90,403
1,985 copied buys · $16,518 total cost
Fill rate
6%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 47%
128 filled · 302 partial · 1,555 no buyers · 1 pending
Backtest score
17/100
1,986 buys · 73 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 969 estimated: 551 high · 271 medium · 147 low · 762 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$4.4k

Final values: 0 min: −$7,063; 1 min: −$5,931; 5 min: −$4,419; 30 min: −$3,588. Max drawdown −$4,422 (5 min, Oct 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$365.43−$76.38+$2.59−$7.33
Sep 22−$1,717−$1,290−$1,226−$1,115
Sep 23−$1,800−$1,398−$1,335−$1,181
Sep 24−$1,800−$1,396−$1,332−$1,181
Sep 25−$1,906−$1,393−$1,362−$1,354
Sep 26−$2,130−$1,570−$1,578−$1,455
Sep 27−$2,130−$1,570−$1,578−$1,455
Sep 28−$2,130−$1,570−$1,578−$1,455
Sep 29−$1,844−$1,286−$1,388−$1,280
Sep 30−$1,463−$837.29−$1,017−$1,051
Oct 1−$1,575−$919.96−$1,071−$1,229
Oct 2−$949.24+$7.98−$10.71−$344.24
Oct 3−$949.24+$15.22−$10.71−$344.24
Oct 4−$949.24+$15.22−$10.71−$344.24
Oct 5−$939.26+$15.22−$10.71−$336.56
Oct 6−$939.26+$15.22−$10.71−$336.56
Oct 7−$911.76+$13.06−$10.71−$351.21
Oct 8−$1,116−$192.49−$164.63−$384.61
Oct 9−$1,116−$192.49−$164.63−$384.61
Oct 10−$1,117−$193.74−$164.69−$454.88
Oct 11−$1,117−$193.74−$164.69−$454.88
Oct 12−$1,117−$193.74−$164.69−$454.88
Oct 13−$1,341−$413.33−$275.23−$708.68
Oct 14−$1,473−$550.10−$483.59−$923.41
Oct 15−$2,992−$2,150−$1,870−$1,793
Oct 16−$2,992−$2,150−$1,870−$1,793
Oct 17−$3,047−$2,206−$1,926−$1,791
Oct 18−$3,049−$2,215−$1,935−$1,780
Oct 19−$3,039−$2,214−$1,934−$1,777
Oct 20−$3,236−$2,411−$2,132−$1,817
Oct 21−$3,604−$2,716−$2,373−$1,929
Oct 22−$4,230−$3,201−$2,946−$2,529
Oct 23−$6,772−$5,684−$4,258−$3,555
Oct 24−$6,839−$5,717−$4,307−$3,568
Oct 25−$6,884−$5,753−$4,318−$3,588
Oct 26−$7,063−$5,931−$4,419−$3,588

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$7,063n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%
1 min−$5,931n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)7%
5 min (selected)−$4,419n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)6%
30 min−$3,588n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)5%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$14,823
  2. Delay helped+$10,929
  3. Slippage helped+$30.00
  4. Fees (buys $424.94 · sells $129.55)−$554.49
  5. Follower PnL−$4,419

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics1,880−$3,714−24.9%
Geopolitics59−$593.40−42.6%
Finance43−$83.31−48.9%
Economy3−$28.01−102%

Data version 12089 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1,911 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.