In backtest, only 5% of 0x744c…e37f's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 5% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$2,197 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x744c…e37f's 458 buys across 48 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$2,197. The leader lost $1,363 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$3,864, slippage $139.26 and fees $164.92. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,700 at once across 68 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 280 estimated: 53 high · 157 medium · 70 low · 144 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$5,203; 1 min: +$4,911; 5 min: +$2,197; 30 min: +$1,678. Max drawdown −$917.70 (5 min, Oct 7). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3,764 | +$3,780 | +$882.42 | +$1,457 |
| Sep 22 | +$4,145 | +$4,162 | +$1,585 | +$1,460 |
| Sep 23 | +$4,421 | +$4,166 | +$1,560 | +$1,661 |
| Sep 24 | +$4,401 | +$4,148 | +$1,460 | +$1,497 |
| Sep 25 | +$4,462 | +$4,208 | +$1,493 | +$1,582 |
| Sep 26 | +$4,461 | +$4,206 | +$1,388 | +$1,582 |
| Sep 27 | +$4,379 | +$4,120 | +$1,282 | +$1,559 |
| Sep 28 | +$4,379 | +$4,114 | +$1,337 | +$1,538 |
| Sep 29 | +$4,376 | +$4,028 | +$1,245 | +$1,538 |
| Sep 30 | +$4,166 | +$3,813 | +$932.01 | +$1,444 |
| Oct 1 | +$3,890 | +$3,595 | +$750.25 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 2 | +$3,885 | +$3,591 | +$750.25 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 3 | +$3,885 | +$3,591 | +$750.25 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 4 | +$3,879 | +$3,585 | +$744.42 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 5 | +$3,879 | +$3,585 | +$744.42 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 6 | +$3,879 | +$3,585 | +$744.42 | +$1,174 |
| Oct 7 | +$3,706 | +$3,563 | +$868.99 | +$1,077 |
| Oct 8 | +$3,706 | +$3,510 | +$816.03 | +$1,055 |
| Oct 9 | +$3,732 | +$3,510 | +$816.03 | +$1,055 |
| Oct 10 | +$3,732 | +$3,510 | +$816.03 | +$1,055 |
| Oct 11 | +$3,732 | +$3,510 | +$816.03 | +$1,055 |
| Oct 12 | +$3,809 | +$3,587 | +$892.18 | +$1,056 |
| Oct 13 | +$3,893 | +$3,587 | +$892.18 | +$1,132 |
| Oct 14 | +$3,887 | +$3,581 | +$886.16 | +$1,129 |
| Oct 15 | +$3,849 | +$3,543 | +$837.20 | +$974.43 |
| Oct 16 | +$3,849 | +$3,543 | +$837.20 | +$974.43 |
| Oct 17 | +$3,850 | +$3,543 | +$837.20 | +$974.43 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,740 | +$3,433 | +$729.61 | +$819.59 |
| Oct 19 | +$3,838 | +$3,531 | +$827.27 | +$819.59 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,823 | +$3,517 | +$827.27 | +$819.59 |
| Oct 21 | +$5,216 | +$4,911 | +$2,226 | +$1,601 |
| Oct 22 | +$5,231 | +$4,925 | +$2,226 | +$1,619 |
| Oct 23 | +$5,213 | +$4,909 | +$2,211 | +$1,691 |
| Oct 24 | +$5,246 | +$4,939 | +$2,214 | +$1,689 |
| Oct 25 | +$5,203 | +$4,911 | +$2,197 | +$1,678 |
| Oct 26 | +$5,203 | +$4,911 | +$2,197 | +$1,678 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$5,203 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 5% |
| 1 min | +$4,911 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 6% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,197 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 5% |
| 30 min | +$1,678 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 4% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$1,363
- Delay helped+$3,864
- Slippage−$139.26
- Fees (buys $149.62 · sells $15.30)−$164.92
- Follower PnL+$2,197
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 441 | +$2,229 | +80.5% |
| Politics | 16 | −$31.35 | −3.1% |
| Sports | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8eeb…a4d1Keeps −74% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb7cd…6827Keeps −4% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1465…7072Leader lost money at this size
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.