In backtest, only 43% of 0x8320…904e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:19 UTC.
Only 43% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the −$1,080 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x8320…904e's 1,062 buys across 76 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,080, while the leader made +$1,711 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $974.72, slippage $772.68 and fees $1,044 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,964 at once across 640 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 505 estimated: 312 high · 135 medium · 58 low · 82 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,586; 1 min: +$164.10; 5 min: −$1,080; 30 min: +$3,116. Max drawdown −$2,614 (5 min, Oct 14). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | −$94.16 | −$91.93 | −$191.44 | −$308.82 |
| Sep 26 | −$94.16 | −$91.93 | −$191.44 | −$308.82 |
| Sep 27 | −$286.23 | −$309.34 | −$539.95 | −$170.54 |
| Sep 28 | −$612.87 | −$774.55 | −$1,018 | −$171.54 |
| Sep 29 | −$566.52 | −$731.96 | −$990.31 | −$132.08 |
| Sep 30 | −$312.60 | −$398.33 | −$748.33 | +$475.26 |
| Oct 1 | −$696.80 | −$578.65 | −$643.25 | +$637.44 |
| Oct 2 | −$625.69 | −$498.08 | −$517.11 | +$597.72 |
| Oct 3 | −$730.17 | −$602.56 | −$561.28 | +$588.21 |
| Oct 4 | −$725.09 | −$608.58 | −$561.28 | +$523.58 |
| Oct 5 | −$722.24 | −$606.06 | −$557.37 | +$395.11 |
| Oct 6 | −$603.47 | −$574.51 | −$489.34 | +$1,100 |
| Oct 7 | −$102.40 | +$43.87 | −$858.49 | +$2,438 |
| Oct 8 | +$861.27 | +$950.82 | −$611.02 | +$3,167 |
| Oct 9 | +$694.37 | +$749.34 | −$704.49 | +$2,946 |
| Oct 10 | +$617.72 | +$570.87 | −$906.18 | +$2,939 |
| Oct 11 | +$352.07 | +$94.93 | −$1,412 | +$2,921 |
| Oct 12 | −$396.88 | −$580.57 | −$2,023 | +$2,855 |
| Oct 13 | −$400.21 | −$860.22 | −$2,178 | +$2,546 |
| Oct 14 | −$259.23 | −$816.02 | −$2,268 | +$2,432 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,455 | +$535.62 | −$920.33 | +$3,112 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,047 | +$123.85 | −$1,473 | +$3,201 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,040 | +$117.72 | −$1,479 | +$3,180 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,053 | +$131.12 | −$1,468 | +$3,193 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,290 | +$367.23 | −$1,080 | +$2,857 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,138 | +$46.92 | −$1,579 | +$2,760 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,170 | +$74.82 | −$1,509 | +$3,065 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,181 | +$80.03 | −$1,609 | +$2,924 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,102 | −$58.60 | −$1,685 | +$3,015 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,609 | +$187.98 | −$1,151 | +$3,231 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,587 | +$165.30 | −$1,079 | +$3,114 |
| Oct 26 | +$1,586 | +$164.10 | −$1,080 | +$3,116 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,586 | 92.7% | 47% |
| 1 min | +$164.10 | 9.6% | 45% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$1,080 | −63.1% | 43% |
| 30 min | +$3,116 | 100%+ (Exactly 182.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 34% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,711
- Delay cost−$974.72
- Slippage−$772.68
- Fees (buys $768.61 · sells $275.26)−$1,044
- Follower PnL−$1,080
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1,062 | −$1,080 | −2.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x84d3…b286Keeps 13% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x2322…3edeKeeps 13% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x73a0…9342Keeps −289% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.