In backtest, only 29% of 0x8cb7…66e3's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 29% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the −$288.38 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x8cb7…66e3's 247 buys across 93 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$288.38. The leader lost $842.86 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$630.31, slippage $11.95 and fees $63.88. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,240 at once across 95 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 159 estimated: 59 high · 77 medium · 23 low · 17 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$167.44; 1 min: +$488.51; 5 min: −$288.38; 30 min: −$514.98. Max drawdown −$365.61 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$11.38 | +$4.16 | +$8.70 | +$15.38 |
| Sep 24 | +$18.32 | +$15.35 | +$17.54 | −$17.28 |
| Sep 25 | +$17.87 | +$14.90 | −$64.17 | +$6.64 |
| Sep 26 | +$17.87 | +$14.90 | −$64.17 | +$6.64 |
| Sep 27 | +$17.87 | +$14.90 | −$64.17 | +$6.64 |
| Sep 28 | +$31.02 | +$28.05 | −$51.02 | +$20.56 |
| Sep 29 | −$112.42 | −$127.18 | −$206.05 | −$185.20 |
| Sep 30 | −$101.50 | −$116.45 | −$194.26 | −$184.82 |
| Oct 1 | −$101.50 | −$116.45 | −$194.26 | −$184.82 |
| Oct 2 | −$72.60 | −$80.80 | −$189.10 | −$184.82 |
| Oct 3 | −$45.90 | −$52.33 | −$155.86 | −$287.06 |
| Oct 4 | −$50.09 | −$54.11 | −$155.78 | −$280.30 |
| Oct 5 | −$50.09 | −$54.11 | −$155.78 | −$280.30 |
| Oct 6 | −$50.09 | −$54.11 | −$155.78 | −$280.30 |
| Oct 7 | −$50.09 | −$54.11 | −$155.78 | −$280.30 |
| Oct 8 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.51 |
| Oct 9 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.51 |
| Oct 10 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.51 |
| Oct 11 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.31 |
| Oct 12 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.03 |
| Oct 13 | −$30.03 | −$34.87 | −$138.33 | −$276.03 |
| Oct 14 | −$64.33 | −$83.25 | −$122.95 | −$364.26 |
| Oct 15 | −$63.58 | −$82.53 | −$122.84 | −$354.87 |
| Oct 16 | −$56.71 | −$75.18 | −$115.85 | −$349.38 |
| Oct 17 | −$56.30 | −$74.77 | −$115.46 | −$346.25 |
| Oct 18 | +$174.13 | +$838.18 | +$60.52 | −$286.33 |
| Oct 19 | +$174.13 | +$838.18 | +$60.52 | −$286.33 |
| Oct 20 | +$174.01 | +$836.06 | +$58.52 | −$279.82 |
| Oct 21 | +$129.88 | +$792.81 | +$20.07 | −$256.56 |
| Oct 22 | +$110.25 | +$778.19 | −$3.89 | −$257.02 |
| Oct 23 | −$73.35 | +$591.04 | −$194.92 | −$439.08 |
| Oct 24 | −$74.86 | +$589.46 | −$194.76 | −$446.52 |
| Oct 25 | −$167.44 | +$488.51 | −$288.38 | −$514.98 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$167.44 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 28% |
| 1 min | +$488.51 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$288.38 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
| 30 min | −$514.98 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 28% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$842.86
- Delay helped+$630.31
- Slippage−$11.95
- Fees (buys $47.14 · sells $16.74)−$63.88
- Follower PnL−$288.38
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 189 | −$458.01 | −7.4% |
| Tech | 20 | +$5.47 | +0.9% |
| Culture | 15 | +$175.41 | +28.6% |
| Geopolitics | 15 | +$11.79 | +11.8% |
| Sports | 5 | −$23.03 | −7.5% |
| Other | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Crypto | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x94da…2bf1Keeps −24% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xaac2…e8ceKeeps −14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xeca0…e8f8Keeps 6% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.