In backtest, only 30% of 0x9352…2227's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:21 UTC.
Only 30% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$1,781 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x9352…2227's 644 buys across 150 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 39% of the leader's returns: +$1,781 against +$4,627 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $2,356, slippage $73.55 and fees $416.79. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $10,619 at once across 281 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 344 estimated: 109 high · 163 medium · 72 low · 103 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3,923; 1 min: +$3,710; 5 min: +$1,781; 30 min: −$635.98. Max drawdown −$2,920 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$14.28 | +$2.70 | +$2.70 | +$4.67 |
| Sep 22 | +$61.51 | +$35.27 | +$199.87 | +$15.21 |
| Sep 23 | +$51.12 | −$51.98 | +$110.21 | −$204.24 |
| Sep 24 | +$41.39 | −$68.36 | +$96.27 | −$221.21 |
| Sep 25 | −$450.05 | −$518.09 | −$301.23 | −$224.64 |
| Sep 26 | −$448.90 | −$517.10 | −$300.75 | −$226.04 |
| Sep 27 | −$448.90 | −$517.10 | −$300.75 | −$226.04 |
| Sep 28 | −$412.02 | −$479.12 | −$261.20 | −$345.74 |
| Sep 29 | −$74.41 | −$61.46 | +$164.55 | −$40.86 |
| Sep 30 | +$772.76 | +$778.53 | +$119.10 | +$2.90 |
| Oct 1 | +$703.39 | +$843.83 | +$132.81 | −$246.80 |
| Oct 2 | +$725.73 | +$863.77 | +$156.21 | −$192.03 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,565 | +$1,517 | +$667.57 | −$10.48 |
| Oct 4 | +$2,273 | +$2,183 | +$1,134 | +$568.36 |
| Oct 5 | +$2,111 | +$1,978 | +$947.04 | +$379.39 |
| Oct 6 | +$2,241 | +$2,101 | +$1,046 | +$495.47 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,314 | +$2,161 | +$1,091 | +$521.99 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,303 | +$2,147 | +$1,072 | +$523.46 |
| Oct 9 | +$2,396 | +$2,201 | +$1,103 | +$570.40 |
| Oct 10 | +$2,396 | +$2,201 | +$1,103 | +$581.09 |
| Oct 11 | +$2,297 | +$2,129 | +$1,103 | +$564.84 |
| Oct 12 | +$2,379 | +$2,219 | +$1,322 | +$720.11 |
| Oct 13 | +$2,406 | +$2,258 | +$1,323 | +$603.64 |
| Oct 14 | +$2,485 | +$2,337 | +$1,398 | +$603.64 |
| Oct 15 | +$2,485 | +$2,337 | +$1,398 | +$603.64 |
| Oct 16 | +$4,323 | +$4,083 | +$2,201 | +$307.45 |
| Oct 17 | +$4,323 | +$4,083 | +$2,201 | +$307.45 |
| Oct 18 | +$4,323 | +$4,083 | +$2,201 | +$307.45 |
| Oct 19 | +$4,793 | +$4,568 | +$2,316 | +$332.17 |
| Oct 20 | +$4,696 | +$4,473 | +$2,297 | +$323.74 |
| Oct 21 | +$5,033 | +$4,813 | +$2,582 | +$128.75 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,888 | +$4,677 | +$2,445 | +$124.78 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,662 | +$3,461 | +$1,303 | −$466.78 |
| Oct 24 | +$3,655 | +$3,384 | +$1,144 | −$473.46 |
| Oct 25 | +$3,999 | +$3,777 | +$1,800 | −$631.43 |
| Oct 26 | +$3,923 | +$3,710 | +$1,781 | −$635.98 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3,923 | 84.8% | 34% |
| 1 min | +$3,710 | 80.2% | 32% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,781 | 38.5% | 30% |
| 30 min | −$635.98 | −13.7% | 23% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,627
- Delay cost−$2,356
- Slippage−$73.55
- Fees (buys $357.82 · sells $58.97)−$416.79
- Follower PnL+$1,781
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 546 | +$621.44 | +3.3% |
| Tech | 50 | +$1,053 | +49.5% |
| Geopolitics | 34 | +$163.91 | +28.0% |
| Finance | 11 | −$30.90 | −11.5% |
| Sports | 3 | −$25.93 | −13.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xab19…4876Keeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6bab…0fe5Keeps 43% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x77fb…266cKeeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.