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In backtest, only 6% of 0xaf15…5dd2's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xaf1555f0edbcf21cf66caf779fa84b8396cf5dd2 Profile on Polymarket

Only 6% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 18% only partly; the −$130.33 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xaf15…5dd2's 147 buys across 7 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$130.33, while the leader made +$602.77 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $704.70, slippage $1.89 and fees $26.51 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,342 at once across 36 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$130.33
Incl. estimates +$1,065
Max drawdown −$260.49
ROI −9.2% on total cost
Returns kept
−21.6%
Leader, same size +$602.77
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$1,342
Incl. estimates $8,075
147 copied buys · $1,411 total cost
Fill rate
6%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 46%
9 filled · 27 partial · 111 no buyers
Backtest score
16/100
147 buys · 7 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 82 estimated: 0 high · 59 medium · 23 low · 49 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$260

Final values: 0 min: −$61.51; 1 min: +$211.55; 5 min: −$130.33; 30 min: −$228.83. Max drawdown −$260.49 (5 min, Oct 2). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 22−$2.88$0.00$0.00$0.00
Sep 23−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 24−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 25−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 26−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 27−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 28−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 29−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Sep 30−$6.31−$3.15−$2.19−$0.43
Oct 1−$390.41−$380.91−$227.48−$122.40
Oct 2−$61.17+$211.37−$125.42−$230.16
Oct 3−$60.55+$211.91−$124.86−$228.89
Oct 4−$61.51+$211.55−$130.33−$228.83

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$61.51−10.2%11%
1 min+$211.5535.1%10%
5 min (selected)−$130.33−21.6%6%
30 min−$228.83−38.0%8%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$602.77
  2. Delay cost−$704.70
  3. Slippage−$1.89
  4. Fees (buys $24.39 · sells $2.12)−$26.51
  5. Follower PnL−$130.33

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics147−$130.33−9.2%

Data version 12088 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 141 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.