In backtest, only 6% of 0xd04e…41b8's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 6% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 7% only partly; the −$40.92 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd04e…41b8's 548 buys across 170 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$40.92, while the leader made +$1,373 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,391, slippage $3.49 and fees $19.63 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $917.87 at once across 71 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 442 estimated: 32 high · 305 medium · 105 low · 72 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1.30; 1 min: +$21.75; 5 min: −$40.92; 30 min: +$205.07. Max drawdown −$218.27 (5 min, Oct 13). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$20.82 | +$20.82 | +$18.31 | +$4.55 |
| Sep 22 | +$27.34 | +$27.34 | +$22.11 | +$10.54 |
| Sep 23 | +$31.27 | +$31.28 | +$26.09 | +$10.54 |
| Sep 24 | +$31.27 | +$31.28 | +$26.09 | +$10.54 |
| Sep 25 | +$41.91 | +$41.93 | +$30.24 | +$23.37 |
| Sep 26 | +$60.82 | +$60.86 | +$59.67 | +$61.60 |
| Sep 27 | +$68.39 | +$67.20 | +$68.14 | +$73.48 |
| Sep 28 | +$68.69 | +$69.94 | +$94.62 | +$78.26 |
| Sep 29 | +$70.38 | +$71.63 | +$101.87 | +$83.21 |
| Sep 30 | +$72.94 | +$74.31 | +$107.41 | +$94.19 |
| Oct 1 | +$131.13 | +$132.50 | +$149.52 | +$128.68 |
| Oct 2 | +$139.00 | +$140.38 | +$156.99 | +$264.08 |
| Oct 3 | +$159.50 | +$140.38 | +$156.99 | +$269.69 |
| Oct 4 | +$159.50 | +$140.38 | +$158.20 | +$273.48 |
| Oct 5 | +$156.55 | +$137.35 | +$92.59 | +$172.20 |
| Oct 6 | +$156.55 | +$137.35 | +$92.59 | +$172.20 |
| Oct 7 | +$87.23 | +$59.00 | +$2.84 | +$244.67 |
| Oct 8 | −$3.70 | +$31.55 | +$2.84 | +$230.64 |
| Oct 9 | +$26.29 | +$61.68 | +$11.34 | +$242.48 |
| Oct 10 | +$43.70 | +$72.06 | +$22.54 | +$277.81 |
| Oct 11 | +$65.15 | +$71.32 | +$26.88 | +$284.06 |
| Oct 12 | +$65.15 | +$71.32 | +$26.88 | +$284.06 |
| Oct 13 | −$23.03 | −$14.36 | −$60.07 | +$297.00 |
| Oct 14 | −$22.30 | −$13.89 | −$58.17 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 15 | −$22.30 | −$13.89 | −$58.17 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 16 | −$22.30 | −$13.89 | −$58.17 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 17 | −$22.30 | −$13.89 | −$58.17 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 18 | −$22.30 | −$13.89 | −$58.17 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 19 | +$0.66 | +$7.40 | −$53.04 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 20 | +$0.66 | +$7.40 | −$53.04 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 21 | +$0.66 | +$7.40 | −$53.04 | +$196.69 |
| Oct 22 | −$6.75 | +$7.26 | −$53.18 | +$190.49 |
| Oct 23 | +$1.72 | +$15.72 | −$46.78 | +$205.07 |
| Oct 24 | +$1.30 | +$21.75 | −$40.92 | +$205.07 |
| Oct 25 | +$1.30 | +$21.75 | −$40.92 | +$205.07 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1.30 | 0.1% | 8% |
| 1 min | +$21.75 | 1.6% | 7% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$40.92 | −3.0% | 6% |
| 30 min | +$205.07 | 14.9% | 9% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,373
- Delay cost−$1,391
- Slippage−$3.49
- Fees (buys $19.33 · sells $0.30)−$19.63
- Follower PnL−$40.92
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 540 | +$59.75 | +1.4% |
| Politics | 6 | −$100.67 | −95.9% |
| Geopolitics | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Crypto traders
- 0x08e4…e173Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7789…a280Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe392…c023Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe9c6…95c9Leader lost money at this size
- 0xebe4…e616Keeps −718% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf705…3ca7Leader lost money at this size
See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.