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In backtest, only 8% of 0xf705…3ca7's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Crypto 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:17 UTC.

Only 8% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 16% only partly; the −$4,686 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xf705…3ca7's 3,176 buys across 388 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$4,686. The leader lost $15,754 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$12,610, slippage $388.31 and fees $1,154. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $8,704 at once across 745 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$4,686
Incl. estimates −$58,327
Max drawdown −$6,641
ROI −14.3% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$15,754
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$8,704
Incl. estimates $82,243
3,176 copied buys · $32,794 total cost
Fill rate
8%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 60%
239 filled · 506 partial · 2,431 no buyers
Backtest score
17/100
3,176 buys · 388 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,339 estimated: 599 high · 1,140 medium · 600 low · 528 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$6.6k

Final values: 0 min: −$2,039; 1 min: −$3,235; 5 min: −$4,686; 30 min: −$5,853. Max drawdown −$6,641 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 20$0.00+$0.22$0.00$0.00
Sep 21−$353.83−$859.57−$843.75−$721.23
Sep 22−$295.34−$811.25−$1,063−$877.98
Sep 23−$610.10−$1,072−$1,358−$1,026
Sep 24−$1,300−$1,716−$1,734−$1,577
Sep 25−$1,144−$1,534−$1,962−$2,582
Sep 26−$1,201−$1,598−$2,234−$2,716
Sep 27−$999.38−$1,576−$2,166−$2,769
Sep 28−$1,201−$2,237−$2,558−$2,724
Sep 29−$1,265−$2,258−$2,534−$2,865
Sep 30−$2,705−$3,615−$4,132−$3,485
Oct 1−$2,561−$3,558−$4,146−$3,488
Oct 2−$3,023−$4,206−$5,344−$3,416
Oct 3−$3,060−$4,234−$5,349−$3,528
Oct 4−$3,065−$4,239−$5,351−$3,631
Oct 5−$3,322−$4,562−$5,646−$3,631
Oct 6−$3,255−$4,543−$5,637−$3,711
Oct 7−$2,103−$3,414−$5,192−$3,544
Oct 8−$2,613−$4,004−$5,932−$4,105
Oct 9−$2,584−$3,963−$5,921−$4,086
Oct 10−$2,584−$3,963−$5,921−$4,086
Oct 11−$2,600−$3,972−$5,911−$4,086
Oct 12−$2,735−$4,126−$6,037−$4,141
Oct 13−$2,660−$4,084−$6,024−$4,144
Oct 14−$2,426−$3,850−$5,864−$4,209
Oct 15−$3,063−$4,474−$6,398−$4,470
Oct 16−$504.24−$1,407−$3,279−$3,849
Oct 17−$714.42−$1,642−$3,534−$3,896
Oct 18−$927.83−$1,792−$3,592−$3,991
Oct 19−$909.37−$1,783−$3,583−$3,987
Oct 20−$815.00−$1,796−$3,546−$4,105
Oct 21−$1,479−$2,253−$4,016−$4,626
Oct 22−$1,561−$2,369−$4,108−$4,813
Oct 23−$2,255−$3,300−$4,640−$5,604
Oct 24−$2,144−$3,318−$4,759−$5,902
Oct 25−$2,063−$3,259−$4,704−$5,853
Oct 26−$2,039−$3,235−$4,686−$5,853

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$2,039n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)10%
1 min−$3,235n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%
5 min (selected)−$4,686n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%
30 min−$5,853n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)5%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$15,754
  2. Delay helped+$12,610
  3. Slippage−$388.31
  4. Fees (buys $978.23 · sells $175.83)−$1,154
  5. Follower PnL−$4,686

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Crypto3,176−$4,686−14.3%

Data version 12079 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 832 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Crypto traders

See the full Crypto copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.