In backtest, only 17% of 0xd950…ad1b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:00 UTC.
Only 17% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the −$2,023 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd950…ad1b's 2,161 buys across 273 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,023, while the leader made +$177.99 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,510, slippage $146.60 and fees $544.28 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $26,129 at once across 631 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,189 estimated: 353 high · 512 medium · 324 low · 561 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$2,933; 1 min: −$2,577; 5 min: −$2,023; 30 min: −$3,154. Max drawdown −$3,050 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | −$34.53 | +$2.13 |
| Sep 22 | −$2.27 | −$32.22 | −$66.75 | +$2.13 |
| Sep 23 | −$45.42 | −$97.45 | +$19.60 | −$14.28 |
| Sep 24 | +$29.51 | −$24.68 | −$297.49 | +$337.95 |
| Sep 25 | −$6.45 | −$10.86 | −$396.03 | +$206.56 |
| Sep 26 | −$113.59 | −$182.65 | −$465.36 | +$152.42 |
| Sep 27 | −$263.37 | −$44.09 | −$349.36 | −$15.57 |
| Sep 28 | −$594.02 | −$411.70 | −$548.73 | +$40.84 |
| Sep 29 | −$665.39 | −$474.95 | −$621.67 | −$106.61 |
| Sep 30 | −$634.53 | −$463.70 | −$610.42 | −$100.43 |
| Oct 1 | −$621.23 | −$434.98 | −$522.49 | −$71.54 |
| Oct 2 | −$645.29 | −$460.41 | −$524.42 | −$104.94 |
| Oct 3 | −$666.87 | −$475.23 | −$515.67 | −$131.38 |
| Oct 4 | +$876.39 | +$1,054 | +$968.62 | +$1,036 |
| Oct 5 | +$575.22 | +$715.00 | +$687.86 | +$742.21 |
| Oct 6 | +$537.06 | +$642.18 | +$616.59 | +$792.54 |
| Oct 7 | +$701.24 | +$771.72 | +$839.57 | +$812.94 |
| Oct 8 | +$588.97 | +$693.43 | +$747.88 | +$754.08 |
| Oct 9 | +$499.85 | +$613.96 | +$731.14 | +$567.73 |
| Oct 10 | +$526.48 | +$651.22 | +$835.34 | +$702.04 |
| Oct 11 | +$503.08 | +$623.08 | +$806.72 | +$702.04 |
| Oct 12 | +$497.63 | +$616.06 | +$804.44 | +$696.14 |
| Oct 13 | +$489.36 | +$616.06 | +$804.44 | +$696.14 |
| Oct 14 | +$75.23 | +$329.58 | +$480.56 | +$733.87 |
| Oct 15 | −$58.94 | +$227.26 | +$480.02 | +$298.91 |
| Oct 16 | −$59.92 | +$226.27 | +$479.04 | +$319.60 |
| Oct 17 | −$42.24 | +$235.05 | +$499.77 | +$319.60 |
| Oct 18 | −$74.95 | +$236.44 | +$430.13 | +$167.16 |
| Oct 19 | −$2,092 | −$1,749 | −$1,670 | −$1,701 |
| Oct 20 | −$1,920 | −$1,577 | −$974.40 | −$1,394 |
| Oct 21 | −$1,873 | −$1,545 | −$913.91 | −$1,573 |
| Oct 22 | −$2,156 | −$1,821 | −$1,148 | −$2,228 |
| Oct 23 | −$2,179 | −$1,857 | −$1,173 | −$2,116 |
| Oct 24 | −$2,202 | −$1,862 | −$1,183 | −$2,118 |
| Oct 25 | −$2,943 | −$2,588 | −$2,028 | −$3,153 |
| Oct 26 | −$2,933 | −$2,577 | −$2,023 | −$3,154 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$2,933 | −1648% | 20% |
| 1 min | −$2,577 | −1448% | 18% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$2,023 | −1137% | 17% |
| 30 min | −$3,154 | −1609% | 14% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$177.99
- Delay cost−$1,510
- Slippage−$146.60
- Fees (buys $501.64 · sells $42.64)−$544.28
- Follower PnL−$2,023
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,661 | −$2,745 | −7.3% |
| Geopolitics | 386 | +$681.93 | +14.0% |
| Finance | 37 | −$19.48 | −13.8% |
| Tech | 30 | +$103.90 | +15.2% |
| Crypto | 29 | −$43.87 | −35.9% |
| Economy | 10 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 5 | −$0.60 | −59.5% |
| Culture | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x000d…758eLeader lost money at this size
- 0x014c…820cKeeps 4% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0826…0b32Keeps −91% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.