In backtest, only 38% of 0xdef6…f69a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 38% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 5% only partly; the −$7,541 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xdef6…f69a's 359 buys across 55 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$7,541, while the leader made +$2,690 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $9,920, slippage $3.21 and fees $307.31 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $12,801 at once across 154 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 153 estimated: 105 high · 33 medium · 15 low · 67 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$6,241; 1 min: −$6,757; 5 min: −$7,541; 30 min: −$7,421. Max drawdown −$8,854 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 5 | +$138.91 | +$139.39 | +$17.31 | +$1.36 |
| Oct 6 | +$2,002 | +$970.61 | +$36.08 | +$9.02 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,002 | +$970.61 | +$36.08 | −$63.69 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,002 | +$970.61 | +$36.08 | −$87.44 |
| Oct 9 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 10 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 11 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 12 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 13 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 14 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 15 | +$3,168 | +$2,292 | +$1,293 | +$216.01 |
| Oct 16 | +$3,197 | +$2,314 | +$1,314 | +$231.98 |
| Oct 17 | +$3,172 | +$2,313 | +$1,307 | +$145.66 |
| Oct 18 | +$2,958 | +$2,104 | +$1,098 | +$142.30 |
| Oct 19 | +$2,959 | +$2,107 | +$1,101 | +$138.67 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,742 | +$1,925 | +$923.94 | −$130.21 |
| Oct 21 | −$3,351 | −$3,978 | −$4,758 | −$4,669 |
| Oct 22 | −$3,408 | −$3,978 | −$4,758 | −$4,669 |
| Oct 23 | −$3,512 | −$4,028 | −$4,811 | −$4,681 |
| Oct 24 | −$3,512 | −$4,028 | −$4,812 | −$4,681 |
| Oct 25 | −$6,241 | −$6,757 | −$7,541 | −$7,421 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$6,241 | −232% | 40% |
| 1 min | −$6,757 | −251% | 39% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$7,541 | −280% | 38% |
| 30 min | −$7,421 | −276% | 28% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$2,690
- Delay cost−$9,920
- Slippage−$3.21
- Fees (buys $295.10 · sells $12.21)−$307.31
- Follower PnL−$7,541
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 330 | −$7,334 | −54.1% |
| Geopolitics | 12 | −$1.00 | −100% |
| Tech | 11 | +$2.88 | +1.4% |
| Culture | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 2 | −$208.79 | −104% |
| Economy | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5287…3a16Leader lost money at this size
- 0x69aa…8847Leader lost money at this size
- 0x7488…43a2Leader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.