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In backtest, only 21% of 0xeb49…693e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xeb490d0534bb68b4c2ce139b219a728cd2c3693e Profile on Polymarket

Only 21% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$2,096 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xeb49…693e's 292 buys across 80 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,096. The leader lost $2,133 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$123.39, slippage helped by +$7.23 and fees $93.89. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,581 at once across 84 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$2,096
Incl. estimates −$3,500
Max drawdown −$2,368
ROI −30.9% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$2,133
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$3,581
Incl. estimates $15,240
292 copied buys · $6,775 total cost
Fill rate
21%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 80%
61 filled · 23 partial · 208 no buyers
Backtest score
20/100
292 buys · 80 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 207 estimated: 13 high · 159 medium · 35 low · 23 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$2.4k

Final values: 0 min: −$1,981; 1 min: −$2,022; 5 min: −$2,096; 30 min: −$2,079. Max drawdown −$2,368 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 20$0.00$0.00+$7.98$0.00
Sep 21−$172.51−$163.91−$253.28−$71.71
Sep 22−$284.31−$273.04−$383.15−$80.89
Sep 23−$310.33−$273.04−$383.15−$93.87
Sep 24−$310.33−$273.04−$383.15−$93.87
Sep 25−$310.33−$273.04−$383.15−$93.87
Sep 26−$305.29−$262.56−$383.15−$98.05
Sep 27−$405.94−$363.24−$421.66−$175.93
Sep 28−$418.69−$359.06−$391.95−$325.66
Sep 29−$421.91−$362.37−$393.44−$321.19
Sep 30−$465.98−$408.84−$458.61−$405.26
Oct 1−$482.36−$426.28−$513.92−$431.93
Oct 2−$819.74−$704.36−$656.37−$647.01
Oct 3−$759.03−$735.13−$678.94−$560.70
Oct 4−$767.36−$743.51−$694.81−$859.51
Oct 5−$1,431−$1,407−$1,286−$1,666
Oct 6−$1,668−$1,660−$1,557−$1,781
Oct 7−$1,668−$1,660−$1,557−$1,781
Oct 8−$1,739−$1,740−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 9−$1,739−$1,740−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 10−$1,739−$1,740−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 11−$1,739−$1,740−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 12−$1,739−$1,740−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 13−$1,804−$1,804−$1,706−$1,821
Oct 14−$1,804−$1,800−$1,703−$1,816
Oct 15−$1,782−$1,779−$1,683−$1,809
Oct 16−$1,754−$1,750−$1,656−$1,796
Oct 17−$1,750−$1,746−$1,656−$1,785
Oct 18−$1,750−$1,746−$1,656−$1,785
Oct 19−$1,750−$1,746−$1,656−$1,785
Oct 20−$1,820−$1,807−$1,729−$1,872
Oct 21−$1,820−$1,807−$1,729−$1,872
Oct 22−$1,820−$1,807−$1,729−$1,872
Oct 23−$1,824−$1,812−$1,735−$1,922
Oct 24−$2,239−$2,275−$2,232−$2,034
Oct 25−$1,981−$2,022−$2,096−$2,079

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$1,981n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)26%
1 min−$2,022n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)26%
5 min (selected)−$2,096n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)21%
30 min−$2,079n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)17%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$2,133
  2. Delay helped+$123.39
  3. Slippage helped+$7.23
  4. Fees (buys $61.78 · sells $32.11)−$93.89
  5. Follower PnL−$2,096

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics254−$2,245−41.2%
Geopolitics21+$51.28+6.2%
Finance17+$97.73+19.6%

Data version 12072 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 46 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.