In backtest, only 10% of 0x0130…fb49's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional8 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:41 UTC.
Only 10% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the −$379.10 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x0130…fb49's 3,304 buys across 1,721 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$379.10. The leader lost $23.12 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$1,302, slippage $1,064 and fees $594.18. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $18,374 at once across 684 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,950 estimated: 788 high · 760 medium · 402 low · 965 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$208.15; 1 min: +$89.49; 5 min: −$379.10; 30 min: −$1,402. Max drawdown −$2,739 (5 min, Oct 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | +$115.12 | +$74.21 | +$66.55 | −$139.74 |
| Sep 26 | +$84.76 | +$12.68 | +$129.93 | −$298.73 |
| Sep 27 | +$117.17 | +$69.74 | +$205.55 | −$298.73 |
| Sep 28 | +$316.74 | +$264.26 | +$407.05 | −$98.27 |
| Sep 29 | +$291.36 | +$337.14 | +$469.98 | −$94.28 |
| Sep 30 | +$465.29 | +$647.75 | +$639.65 | −$111.31 |
| Oct 1 | +$401.46 | +$630.64 | +$850.97 | +$129.07 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,343 | +$1,409 | +$1,181 | +$255.46 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,086 | +$1,051 | +$936.62 | −$223.53 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,282 | +$1,260 | +$785.34 | +$164.19 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,041 | +$834.88 | +$321.24 | +$40.50 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,029 | +$780.92 | +$337.31 | +$31.01 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,673 | +$2,624 | +$1,641 | +$624.89 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,758 | +$2,628 | +$1,645 | +$629.42 |
| Oct 9 | +$3,012 | +$2,654 | +$1,687 | +$631.72 |
| Oct 10 | +$3,044 | +$2,568 | +$1,693 | +$619.95 |
| Oct 11 | +$2,935 | +$2,563 | +$1,595 | +$613.77 |
| Oct 12 | +$2,987 | +$2,569 | +$1,599 | +$530.20 |
| Oct 13 | +$3,155 | +$2,684 | +$1,759 | +$477.68 |
| Oct 14 | +$3,339 | +$2,607 | +$1,519 | +$511.26 |
| Oct 15 | +$3,339 | +$2,607 | +$1,519 | +$511.26 |
| Oct 16 | +$3,339 | +$2,607 | +$1,519 | +$511.26 |
| Oct 17 | +$2,827 | +$2,187 | +$1,223 | +$563.53 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,044 | +$2,476 | +$1,385 | +$523.75 |
| Oct 19 | +$2,918 | +$2,412 | +$1,232 | +$284.34 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,127 | +$2,504 | +$1,133 | +$35.38 |
| Oct 21 | +$2,763 | +$2,279 | +$2,046 | −$234.61 |
| Oct 22 | +$2,763 | +$2,279 | +$2,046 | −$234.61 |
| Oct 23 | +$2,763 | +$2,279 | +$2,046 | −$234.61 |
| Oct 24 | +$2,763 | +$2,279 | +$2,046 | −$234.61 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,771 | +$1,645 | +$586.04 | −$1,423 |
| Oct 26 | +$208.15 | +$89.49 | −$379.10 | −$1,402 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$208.15 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 18% |
| 1 min | +$89.49 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 12% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$379.10 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 10% |
| 30 min | −$1,402 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 6% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$23.12
- Delay helped+$1,302
- Slippage−$1,064
- Fees (buys $592.38 · sells $1.80)−$594.18
- Follower PnL−$379.10
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,099 | +$1,402 | +8.0% |
| Sports | 876 | −$1,628 | −10.9% |
| Weather | 457 | −$383.21 | −16.2% |
| Economy | 276 | +$36.74 | +8.1% |
| Tech | 185 | −$34.12 | −0.8% |
| Finance | 136 | +$156.83 | +11.3% |
| Culture | 129 | +$70.94 | +4.7% |
| Crypto | 96 | −$0.43 | −0.3% |
| Geopolitics | 42 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0bef…3b06Leader lost money at this size
- 0x1489…1307Keeps −9% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1ee9…197fKeeps 2% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.