In backtest, only 3% of 0x1ee9…197f's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:05 UTC.
Only 3% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$240.20 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1ee9…197f's 1,818 buys across 705 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 2% of the leader's returns: +$240.20 against +$14,762 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $14,281, slippage $119.70 and fees $121.05. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,384 at once across 229 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,038 estimated: 403 high · 419 medium · 216 low · 690 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,419; 1 min: +$1,319; 5 min: +$240.20; 30 min: +$180.99. Max drawdown −$874.42 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$1.20 | +$22.64 | −$6.61 | +$13.33 |
| Sep 22 | +$642.31 | +$533.75 | +$536.06 | +$64.73 |
| Sep 23 | +$623.74 | +$458.59 | +$547.69 | +$143.73 |
| Sep 24 | +$601.04 | +$455.90 | +$555.06 | +$146.52 |
| Sep 25 | +$636.70 | +$486.72 | +$563.19 | +$150.05 |
| Sep 26 | +$645.23 | +$487.06 | +$563.52 | +$150.05 |
| Sep 27 | +$645.80 | +$508.13 | +$592.50 | +$151.79 |
| Sep 28 | +$614.32 | +$462.38 | +$549.05 | +$270.70 |
| Sep 29 | +$592.33 | +$447.82 | +$520.11 | +$270.71 |
| Sep 30 | +$544.59 | +$421.48 | +$457.47 | +$211.71 |
| Oct 1 | +$510.97 | +$372.84 | +$441.69 | +$608.91 |
| Oct 2 | +$512.55 | +$381.43 | +$449.86 | +$878.94 |
| Oct 3 | +$279.12 | +$191.57 | +$288.05 | +$774.40 |
| Oct 4 | +$167.16 | +$69.22 | +$160.78 | +$783.12 |
| Oct 5 | +$183.33 | +$72.92 | +$163.55 | +$781.68 |
| Oct 6 | +$215.32 | +$72.92 | +$170.59 | +$781.68 |
| Oct 7 | +$232.20 | +$83.10 | +$185.80 | +$767.83 |
| Oct 8 | +$236.41 | +$86.67 | +$189.71 | +$767.83 |
| Oct 9 | +$232.76 | +$94.22 | +$190.94 | +$786.25 |
| Oct 10 | +$254.15 | +$115.72 | +$218.01 | +$793.38 |
| Oct 11 | +$245.57 | +$108.29 | +$216.97 | +$793.38 |
| Oct 12 | +$73.95 | +$112.71 | +$214.69 | +$793.38 |
| Oct 13 | +$36.22 | +$87.74 | +$302.98 | +$804.02 |
| Oct 14 | −$69.10 | −$35.11 | +$291.82 | +$805.22 |
| Oct 15 | −$257.31 | −$242.45 | −$20.06 | +$771.24 |
| Oct 16 | −$252.88 | −$239.13 | −$18.53 | +$774.96 |
| Oct 17 | −$360.92 | −$343.62 | −$18.07 | +$825.92 |
| Oct 18 | −$400.26 | −$357.03 | −$22.00 | +$712.78 |
| Oct 19 | −$404.29 | −$362.00 | −$31.61 | +$694.62 |
| Oct 20 | −$317.29 | −$286.98 | −$9.22 | +$727.09 |
| Oct 21 | −$272.81 | −$327.89 | −$48.45 | +$763.25 |
| Oct 22 | −$294.24 | −$331.45 | −$65.01 | +$757.32 |
| Oct 23 | −$273.02 | −$320.41 | −$57.53 | +$708.37 |
| Oct 24 | −$281.04 | −$319.06 | −$60.14 | +$708.11 |
| Oct 25 | −$438.70 | −$424.35 | +$240.20 | +$186.11 |
| Oct 26 | +$1,419 | +$1,319 | +$240.20 | +$180.99 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,419 | 9.6% | 5% |
| 1 min | +$1,319 | 8.9% | 3% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$240.20 | 1.6% | 3% |
| 30 min | +$180.99 | 1.2% | 2% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$14,762
- Delay cost−$14,281
- Slippage−$119.70
- Fees (buys $109.59 · sells $11.46)−$121.05
- Follower PnL+$240.20
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,096 | +$99.21 | +1.5% |
| Tech | 351 | +$196.91 | +17.4% |
| Finance | 112 | −$11.83 | −2.4% |
| Crypto | 101 | +$8.79 | +8.9% |
| Sports | 96 | −$37.38 | −8.0% |
| Geopolitics | 38 | +$0.09 | +0.1% |
| Culture | 15 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Economy | 4 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Other | 4 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 1 | −$15.59 | −99.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x368b…2458Leader lost money at this size
- 0x3a8a…7699Leader lost money at this size
- 0x4a69…228fLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.