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In backtest, only 12% of 0x06b2…9f35's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Finance 0x06b2934b382d4429d50d7239ee375a76167f9f35 Profile on Polymarket

Only 12% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 20% only partly; the +$301.57 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x06b2…9f35's 1,243 buys across 103 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 10% of the leader's returns: +$301.57 against +$3,141 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $2,168, slippage $326.18 and fees $345.50. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,092 at once across 395 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$301.57
Incl. estimates +$4,937
Max drawdown −$1,550
ROI +1.5% on total cost
Returns kept
9.6%
Leader, same size +$3,141
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$5,092
Incl. estimates $13,006
1,243 copied buys · $20,370 total cost
Fill rate
12%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 48%
150 filled · 245 partial · 848 no buyers
Backtest score
24/100
1,243 buys · 103 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 612 estimated: 392 high · 109 medium · 111 low · 424 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$1.5k

Final values: 0 min: +$1,911; 1 min: +$312.08; 5 min: +$301.57; 30 min: −$323.05. Max drawdown −$1,550 (5 min, Oct 11). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$552.34−$531.87−$501.35−$350.31
Sep 22−$324.26−$505.50−$672.35−$341.41
Sep 23−$108.28−$221.64−$421.44−$191.72
Sep 24−$77.46−$237.64−$456.61−$602.02
Sep 25−$785.58−$977.17−$1,191−$1,941
Sep 26−$785.58−$977.17−$1,191−$1,941
Sep 27−$785.58−$977.17−$1,191−$1,941
Sep 28−$893.71−$1,096−$1,307−$1,975
Sep 29−$304.77−$341.79−$513.61−$1,542
Sep 30+$86.90−$53.66+$66.75−$690.90
Oct 1−$304.38−$439.61−$507.70−$779.61
Oct 2−$304.38−$439.48−$507.70−$779.61
Oct 3−$304.38−$439.48−$507.70−$779.61
Oct 4−$1,322−$1,410−$1,012−$1,288
Oct 5−$1,149−$1,228−$1,101−$1,632
Oct 6−$1,156−$1,244−$1,170−$1,626
Oct 7−$1,156−$1,244−$1,171−$1,626
Oct 8−$1,195−$1,350−$1,195−$1,755
Oct 9−$1,263−$1,416−$1,276−$1,786
Oct 10−$1,263−$1,416−$1,276−$1,786
Oct 11−$1,630−$1,877−$1,211−$1,224
Oct 12+$689.37−$1,030−$723.67−$793.62
Oct 13+$818.81−$885.70−$578.84−$696.98
Oct 14+$801.46−$902.05−$591.73−$694.09
Oct 15+$801.46−$902.05−$591.73−$694.09
Oct 16+$1,579−$112.69−$55.25+$52.17
Oct 17+$1,579−$112.69−$55.25+$52.17
Oct 18+$1,579−$112.69−$55.25+$52.17
Oct 19+$2,454+$801.24+$794.64+$133.31
Oct 20+$1,729+$87.50+$197.05−$226.64
Oct 21+$1,351−$285.85−$88.70−$859.50
Oct 22+$1,371−$265.90−$174.83−$872.61
Oct 23+$1,911+$312.08+$301.57−$323.05

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min+$1,91160.8%15%
1 min+$312.089.9%14%
5 min (selected)+$301.579.6%12%
30 min−$323.05−10.3%10%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$3,141
  2. Delay cost−$2,168
  3. Slippage−$326.18
  4. Fees (buys $345.50 · sells $0.00)−$345.50
  5. Follower PnL+$301.57

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Finance1,132+$1,439+11.3%
Sports111−$1,137−14.9%

Data version 12081 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 0 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Finance traders

See the full Finance copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.