In backtest, only 14% of 0xf9e1…0458's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional4 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:03 UTC.
Only 14% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 25% only partly; the +$17,230 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xf9e1…0458's 1,818 buys across 52 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$17,230 — more than the leader's +$4,489 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (383.8%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$15,611, slippage $2,063 and fees $808.19. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,549 at once across 713 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 914 estimated: 552 high · 153 medium · 209 low · 539 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$8,839; 1 min: +$8,918; 5 min: +$17,230; 30 min: +$11,666. Max drawdown −$2,819 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$98.57 | +$95.30 | +$12.57 | +$1.27 |
| Sep 22 | +$5,563 | +$6,665 | +$11,924 | +$5,396 |
| Sep 23 | +$5,694 | +$6,866 | +$12,090 | +$5,430 |
| Sep 24 | +$6,356 | +$7,598 | +$13,597 | +$7,168 |
| Sep 25 | +$5,780 | +$7,131 | +$13,252 | +$6,858 |
| Sep 26 | +$5,780 | +$7,131 | +$13,252 | +$6,858 |
| Sep 27 | +$5,780 | +$7,131 | +$13,252 | +$6,858 |
| Sep 28 | +$5,499 | +$6,893 | +$13,189 | +$6,885 |
| Sep 29 | +$6,074 | +$7,414 | +$13,579 | +$7,067 |
| Sep 30 | +$9,218 | +$10,105 | +$18,666 | +$12,711 |
| Oct 1 | +$7,793 | +$8,538 | +$17,901 | +$12,032 |
| Oct 2 | +$7,599 | +$8,295 | +$17,627 | +$11,859 |
| Oct 3 | +$7,599 | +$8,295 | +$17,627 | +$11,859 |
| Oct 4 | +$7,599 | +$8,295 | +$17,627 | +$11,859 |
| Oct 5 | +$7,753 | +$8,448 | +$17,708 | +$11,992 |
| Oct 6 | +$8,356 | +$8,889 | +$17,735 | +$12,108 |
| Oct 7 | +$8,337 | +$8,933 | +$17,727 | +$12,644 |
| Oct 8 | +$8,517 | +$9,067 | +$17,776 | +$12,761 |
| Oct 9 | +$8,507 | +$9,080 | +$17,758 | +$12,749 |
| Oct 10 | +$8,507 | +$9,080 | +$17,758 | +$12,749 |
| Oct 11 | +$8,507 | +$9,080 | +$17,758 | +$12,749 |
| Oct 12 | +$8,106 | +$8,600 | +$17,204 | +$12,572 |
| Oct 13 | +$9,102 | +$9,480 | +$18,091 | +$13,890 |
| Oct 14 | +$9,426 | +$9,613 | +$18,121 | +$14,114 |
| Oct 15 | +$8,239 | +$8,588 | +$16,685 | +$12,012 |
| Oct 16 | +$7,922 | +$8,394 | +$16,702 | +$11,698 |
| Oct 17 | +$7,922 | +$8,394 | +$16,702 | +$11,698 |
| Oct 18 | +$7,922 | +$8,394 | +$16,702 | +$11,698 |
| Oct 19 | +$7,954 | +$8,427 | +$16,738 | +$11,677 |
| Oct 20 | +$7,481 | +$8,075 | +$16,680 | +$11,361 |
| Oct 21 | +$8,014 | +$8,556 | +$17,100 | +$11,465 |
| Oct 22 | +$8,652 | +$8,748 | +$17,108 | +$11,552 |
| Oct 23 | +$8,840 | +$8,920 | +$17,231 | +$11,667 |
| Oct 24 | +$8,840 | +$8,920 | +$17,231 | +$11,667 |
| Oct 25 | +$8,840 | +$8,920 | +$17,231 | +$11,667 |
| Oct 26 | +$8,839 | +$8,918 | +$17,230 | +$11,666 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$8,839 | 100%+ (Exactly 196.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
| 1 min | +$8,918 | 100%+ (Exactly 198.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 16% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$17,230 | 100%+ (Exactly 383.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 14% |
| 30 min | +$11,666 | 100%+ (Exactly 259.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 12% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,489
- Delay helped+$15,611
- Slippage−$2,063
- Fees (buys $616.20 · sells $191.99)−$808.19
- Follower PnL+$17,230
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 1,814 | +$17,230 | +45.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Finance traders
- 0x9994…08b0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xedc8…3296Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5a45…f628Keeps 60% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8888…0b39Keeps 46% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9efd…b227Keeps 32% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcdb1…276cKeeps 24% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Finance copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.