In backtest, only 11% of 0x9994…08b0's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 11% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 20% only partly; the +$9,881 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x9994…08b0's 2,505 buys across 52 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$9,881 — more than the leader's +$4,209 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (234.8%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$6,216, slippage helped by +$11.93 and fees $555.98. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,227 at once across 767 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,499 estimated: 1,103 high · 211 medium · 185 low · 649 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$11,523; 1 min: +$10,014; 5 min: +$9,881; 30 min: +$10,788. Max drawdown −$2,647 (5 min, Oct 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$1.95 | +$1.95 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$3,194 | +$2,762 | +$2,774 | +$5,584 |
| Sep 23 | +$3,324 | +$3,230 | +$3,842 | +$7,515 |
| Sep 24 | +$3,424 | +$3,379 | +$3,980 | +$7,515 |
| Sep 25 | +$3,531 | +$3,623 | +$4,365 | +$8,241 |
| Sep 26 | +$3,544 | +$3,618 | +$4,351 | +$8,241 |
| Sep 27 | +$3,544 | +$3,618 | +$4,351 | +$8,241 |
| Sep 28 | +$3,302 | +$3,505 | +$4,342 | +$8,058 |
| Sep 29 | +$3,237 | +$3,451 | +$4,319 | +$8,071 |
| Sep 30 | +$15,714 | +$13,573 | +$12,056 | +$13,899 |
| Oct 1 | +$14,528 | +$12,369 | +$11,318 | +$13,864 |
| Oct 2 | +$14,241 | +$12,179 | +$11,112 | +$13,758 |
| Oct 3 | +$14,221 | +$12,179 | +$11,112 | +$13,758 |
| Oct 4 | +$14,221 | +$12,179 | +$11,112 | +$13,758 |
| Oct 5 | +$13,728 | +$11,724 | +$10,910 | +$13,621 |
| Oct 6 | +$13,761 | +$11,724 | +$10,654 | +$13,620 |
| Oct 7 | +$13,765 | +$11,728 | +$10,640 | +$13,529 |
| Oct 8 | +$13,514 | +$11,586 | +$10,442 | +$13,101 |
| Oct 9 | +$13,143 | +$11,215 | +$10,106 | +$13,074 |
| Oct 10 | +$13,143 | +$11,215 | +$10,106 | +$13,074 |
| Oct 11 | +$13,165 | +$11,238 | +$10,129 | +$13,076 |
| Oct 12 | +$14,023 | +$12,910 | +$12,148 | +$13,474 |
| Oct 13 | +$14,068 | +$13,052 | +$12,342 | +$13,664 |
| Oct 14 | +$14,467 | +$13,120 | +$12,401 | +$13,641 |
| Oct 15 | +$13,177 | +$12,017 | +$11,274 | +$12,634 |
| Oct 16 | +$13,001 | +$11,703 | +$10,938 | +$12,399 |
| Oct 17 | +$13,001 | +$11,703 | +$10,938 | +$12,399 |
| Oct 18 | +$13,088 | +$11,818 | +$11,143 | +$12,404 |
| Oct 19 | +$12,666 | +$11,377 | +$10,856 | +$11,831 |
| Oct 20 | +$12,097 | +$10,570 | +$10,524 | +$11,419 |
| Oct 21 | +$11,311 | +$10,000 | +$9,887 | +$10,772 |
| Oct 22 | +$11,611 | +$10,083 | +$9,931 | +$10,835 |
| Oct 23 | +$11,574 | +$10,057 | +$9,883 | +$10,788 |
| Oct 24 | +$11,527 | +$10,013 | +$9,882 | +$10,790 |
| Oct 25 | +$11,523 | +$10,014 | +$9,881 | +$10,788 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$11,523 | 100%+ (Exactly 273.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 14% |
| 1 min | +$10,014 | 100%+ (Exactly 237.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 12% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$9,881 | 100%+ (Exactly 234.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 11% |
| 30 min | +$10,788 | 100%+ (Exactly 256.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 9% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,209
- Delay helped+$6,216
- Slippage helped+$11.93
- Fees (buys $555.98 · sells $0.00)−$555.98
- Follower PnL+$9,881
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 2,505 | +$9,881 | +24.6% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Finance traders
- 0xf9e1…0458Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xedc8…3296Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5a45…f628Keeps 60% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8888…0b39Keeps 46% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9efd…b227Keeps 32% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcdb1…276cKeeps 24% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Finance copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.