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In backtest, only 13% of 0x14a1…9912's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x14a1783e71d1d001a62c01fb2ad29aec8dbb9912 Profile on Polymarket

Provisional5 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:40 UTC.

Only 13% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the +$556.89 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x14a1…9912's 3,456 buys across 1,096 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$556.89. The leader lost $9,477 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$12,010, slippage $251.88 and fees $1,724. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $19,119 at once across 1,027 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$556.89
Incl. estimates −$6,406
Max drawdown −$948.92
ROI +0.9% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$9,477
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$19,119
Incl. estimates $166,417
3,451 copied buys · $60,399 total cost
Fill rate
13%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 59%
454 filled · 573 partial · 2,424 no buyers · 5 pending
Backtest score
18/100
3,456 buys · 1,096 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,332 estimated: 1,540 high · 298 medium · 494 low · 575 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$949

Final values: 0 min: −$3,524; 1 min: −$721.73; 5 min: +$556.89; 30 min: +$1,583. Max drawdown −$948.92 (5 min, Sep 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 22−$79.56−$239.93−$371.46+$28.80
Sep 23−$470.20−$442.65−$371.64+$73.42
Sep 24−$684.28−$476.44−$437.42+$104.61
Sep 25−$866.27−$734.83−$797.77+$446.08
Sep 26−$1,458−$1,108−$775.28+$311.39
Sep 27−$1,566−$1,223−$660.49+$510.88
Sep 28−$1,533−$1,107−$632.97+$480.64
Sep 29−$1,351−$1,042−$527.10+$581.99
Sep 30−$1,603−$1,146−$590.52+$533.94
Oct 1−$1,471−$1,189−$586.25+$687.82
Oct 2−$1,516−$1,202−$612.84+$547.82
Oct 3−$1,287−$914.95−$503.63+$567.87
Oct 4−$1,243−$821.17−$533.40+$581.71
Oct 5−$1,290−$771.10−$416.92+$708.96
Oct 6−$941.78−$791.29−$422.97+$740.94
Oct 7−$1,073−$898.76−$521.38+$675.71
Oct 8−$1,245−$839.73−$462.38+$713.76
Oct 9−$1,364−$821.12−$132.57+$971.77
Oct 10−$1,545−$897.95−$138.28+$993.74
Oct 11−$1,351−$699.52−$210.51+$949.94
Oct 12−$1,372−$446.66+$31.49+$813.99
Oct 13−$1,455−$452.96+$50.31+$805.15
Oct 14−$1,570−$501.86−$24.14+$843.60
Oct 15−$1,747−$547.93−$13.53+$868.31
Oct 16−$1,785−$587.67−$43.72+$996.39
Oct 17−$2,032−$682.41−$64.45+$999.38
Oct 18−$2,032−$651.00−$30.96+$986.59
Oct 19−$2,028−$663.07−$29.57+$964.50
Oct 20−$1,840−$659.26−$27.62+$911.09
Oct 21−$1,903−$670.96−$55.49+$886.40
Oct 22−$2,166−$415.27+$541.92+$1,191
Oct 23−$2,503−$239.35+$1,191+$1,858
Oct 24−$2,691+$74.56+$1,221+$1,477
Oct 25−$3,510−$720.12+$557.52+$1,583
Oct 26−$3,524−$721.73+$556.89+$1,583

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,524n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)20%
1 min−$721.73n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)16%
5 min (selected)+$556.89n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)13%
30 min+$1,583n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)11%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$9,477
  2. Delay helped+$12,010
  3. Slippage−$251.88
  4. Fees (buys $1,067 · sells $657.32)−$1,724
  5. Follower PnL+$556.89

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics1,831+$535.34+1.6%
Finance374−$11.57−0.3%
Tech341+$388.26+13.9%
Economy252−$98.96−5.7%
Sports230−$624.54−4.1%
Culture170+$180.19+11.2%
Weather106+$84.75+13.0%
Crypto77+$14.12+3.3%
Geopolitics70+$89.29+6.0%

Data version 12091 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 661 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.