In backtest, only 6% of 0x167a…91d5's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional2 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:08 UTC.
Only 6% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$1,241 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x167a…91d5's 3,910 buys across 1,411 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$1,241. The leader lost $6,993 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$8,924, slippage $154.60 and fees $535.45. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $17,069 at once across 625 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,308 estimated: 1,463 high · 498 medium · 347 low · 1,302 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$792.15; 1 min: +$984.50; 5 min: +$1,241; 30 min: +$466.47. Max drawdown −$281.11 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$5.97 | +$27.88 | +$22.81 | +$38.06 |
| Sep 22 | +$174.21 | +$174.35 | +$117.38 | +$22.04 |
| Sep 23 | +$165.40 | +$184.64 | +$86.65 | +$120.31 |
| Sep 24 | +$262.47 | +$284.43 | +$93.97 | +$112.97 |
| Sep 25 | +$230.58 | +$283.79 | +$80.04 | +$91.56 |
| Sep 26 | +$216.03 | +$285.89 | +$73.66 | +$69.44 |
| Sep 27 | +$208.61 | +$284.17 | +$51.50 | +$71.04 |
| Sep 28 | +$265.86 | +$298.68 | +$29.93 | +$65.45 |
| Sep 29 | +$324.36 | +$340.62 | +$74.69 | +$143.47 |
| Sep 30 | +$253.09 | +$343.77 | −$12.12 | +$36.12 |
| Oct 1 | +$431.88 | +$632.76 | −$17.74 | +$56.35 |
| Oct 2 | +$930.98 | +$685.54 | −$24.29 | +$204.09 |
| Oct 3 | +$820.56 | +$628.31 | +$349.89 | +$379.98 |
| Oct 4 | +$847.18 | +$639.09 | +$331.89 | +$598.65 |
| Oct 5 | +$779.98 | +$542.94 | +$221.50 | +$581.43 |
| Oct 6 | +$770.37 | +$558.51 | +$244.51 | +$573.85 |
| Oct 7 | +$750.87 | +$569.99 | +$258.43 | +$599.37 |
| Oct 8 | +$738.12 | +$581.70 | +$319.07 | +$596.16 |
| Oct 9 | +$711.57 | +$566.87 | +$305.32 | +$588.64 |
| Oct 10 | +$687.95 | +$554.53 | +$308.02 | +$576.42 |
| Oct 11 | +$675.18 | +$552.82 | +$277.77 | +$579.34 |
| Oct 12 | +$566.96 | +$445.00 | +$209.63 | +$463.63 |
| Oct 13 | +$516.52 | +$408.68 | +$198.33 | +$452.56 |
| Oct 14 | +$489.58 | +$463.19 | +$134.59 | +$535.28 |
| Oct 15 | +$481.79 | +$465.19 | +$111.74 | +$526.05 |
| Oct 16 | +$598.90 | +$585.64 | +$246.68 | +$495.63 |
| Oct 17 | +$498.78 | +$567.34 | +$244.08 | +$482.70 |
| Oct 18 | +$546.87 | +$582.03 | +$265.65 | +$487.96 |
| Oct 19 | +$528.37 | +$661.33 | +$322.13 | +$478.63 |
| Oct 20 | +$407.20 | +$622.79 | +$338.37 | +$435.63 |
| Oct 21 | +$274.04 | +$603.19 | +$316.06 | +$400.56 |
| Oct 22 | +$174.71 | +$622.72 | +$481.89 | +$588.78 |
| Oct 23 | +$15.82 | +$486.62 | +$615.18 | +$471.09 |
| Oct 24 | +$589.38 | +$699.85 | +$1,183 | +$460.26 |
| Oct 25 | +$808.39 | +$988.32 | +$1,244 | +$467.03 |
| Oct 26 | +$792.15 | +$984.50 | +$1,241 | +$466.47 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$792.15 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 11% |
| 1 min | +$984.50 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 8% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,241 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 6% |
| 30 min | +$466.47 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 4% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$6,993
- Delay helped+$8,924
- Slippage−$154.60
- Fees (buys $389.60 · sells $145.85)−$535.45
- Follower PnL+$1,241
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2,520 | +$1,212 | +5.2% |
| Finance | 363 | −$27.90 | −0.9% |
| Crypto | 284 | +$1.69 | +0.7% |
| Geopolitics | 180 | −$1.12 | −0.1% |
| Tech | 172 | +$122.07 | +14.6% |
| Culture | 134 | −$14.06 | −2.6% |
| Economy | 124 | −$20.74 | −4.0% |
| Sports | 111 | −$31.56 | −1.8% |
| Weather | 20 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1e9c…2ec7Leader lost money at this size
- 0x226b…cad6Keeps −14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x27b0…209bKeeps −202% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.