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In backtest, only 15% of 0x2974…9c23's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 Profile on Polymarket

Only 15% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the −$2,354 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x2974…9c23's 358 buys across 93 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,354. The leader lost $3,811 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$1,518, slippage helped by +$0.87 and fees $62.71. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,406 at once across 85 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$2,354
Incl. estimates −$2,874
Max drawdown −$2,422
ROI −39.1% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$3,811
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$3,406
Incl. estimates $22,122
358 copied buys · $6,022 total cost
Fill rate
15%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 77%
52 filled · 33 partial · 273 no buyers
Backtest score
19/100
358 buys · 93 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 275 estimated: 11 high · 211 medium · 53 low · 29 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$2.4k

Final values: 0 min: −$2,467; 1 min: −$2,649; 5 min: −$2,354; 30 min: −$2,702. Max drawdown −$2,422 (5 min, Oct 8). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$15.82−$16.31$0.00$0.00
Sep 22−$148.31−$158.44−$42.50−$177.18
Sep 23+$41.26+$9.66−$128.04−$177.18
Sep 24−$56.35−$199.01−$419.29−$563.33
Sep 25−$101.47−$248.53−$521.64−$565.46
Sep 26−$101.47−$248.53−$551.36−$565.46
Sep 27−$373.48−$545.02−$729.23−$628.03
Sep 28−$442.73−$646.08−$824.93−$724.54
Sep 29−$726.38−$929.62−$898.27−$844.86
Sep 30−$927.21−$1,130−$898.27−$844.86
Oct 1−$887.17−$1,081−$917.40−$864.09
Oct 2−$1,467−$1,663−$1,386−$1,436
Oct 3−$1,467−$1,663−$1,386−$1,436
Oct 4−$1,520−$1,726−$1,448−$1,609
Oct 5−$2,145−$2,351−$2,151−$2,490
Oct 6−$2,316−$2,537−$2,332−$2,589
Oct 7−$2,316−$2,537−$2,332−$2,589
Oct 8−$2,363−$2,584−$2,421−$2,589
Oct 9−$2,363−$2,584−$2,421−$2,589
Oct 10−$2,447−$2,660−$2,416−$2,614
Oct 11−$2,447−$2,660−$2,416−$2,614
Oct 12−$2,447−$2,660−$2,416−$2,614
Oct 13−$2,442−$2,656−$2,412−$2,611
Oct 14−$2,442−$2,656−$2,412−$2,611
Oct 15−$2,442−$2,656−$2,412−$2,611
Oct 16−$2,412−$2,626−$2,382−$2,611
Oct 17−$2,412−$2,626−$2,382−$2,611
Oct 18−$2,412−$2,626−$2,382−$2,611
Oct 19−$2,406−$2,620−$2,376−$2,611
Oct 20−$2,467−$2,653−$2,409−$2,611
Oct 21−$2,467−$2,653−$2,409−$2,611
Oct 22−$2,467−$2,653−$2,409−$2,611
Oct 23−$2,513−$2,699−$2,409−$2,611
Oct 24−$2,513−$2,699−$2,409−$2,711
Oct 25−$2,467−$2,649−$2,354−$2,702

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$2,467n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)17%
1 min−$2,649n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)17%
5 min (selected)−$2,354n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)15%
30 min−$2,702n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)10%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$3,811
  2. Delay helped+$1,518
  3. Slippage helped+$0.87
  4. Fees (buys $48.42 · sells $14.29)−$62.71
  5. Follower PnL−$2,354

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics337−$2,436−46.4%
Geopolitics12+$43.33+7.7%
Finance9+$38.87+18.2%

Data version 12088 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 42 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.