In backtest, only 15% of 0x410a…2643's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:02 UTC.
Only 15% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$3,029 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x410a…2643's 639 buys across 51 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,029. The leader lost $2,158 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $837.13, slippage $0.26 and fees $33.45. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,892 at once across 147 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 439 estimated: 61 high · 323 medium · 55 low · 104 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$3,158; 1 min: −$2,942; 5 min: −$3,029; 30 min: −$2,479. Max drawdown −$3,062 (5 min, Oct 5). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | +$8.76 | +$4.86 | +$0.23 | +$0.13 |
| Sep 27 | +$8.76 | +$4.86 | +$0.23 | +$0.13 |
| Sep 28 | +$8.76 | +$4.86 | +$0.23 | +$0.13 |
| Sep 29 | +$12.50 | +$8.77 | +$3.93 | +$0.13 |
| Sep 30 | +$12.50 | +$8.77 | +$3.93 | +$0.13 |
| Oct 1 | −$64.44 | −$68.33 | −$173.35 | −$308.10 |
| Oct 2 | −$305.58 | −$111.77 | −$368.67 | −$409.34 |
| Oct 3 | −$304.75 | −$110.93 | −$367.89 | −$409.29 |
| Oct 4 | −$304.75 | −$110.93 | −$367.89 | −$409.29 |
| Oct 5 | −$3,098 | −$2,877 | −$3,058 | −$2,412 |
| Oct 6 | −$3,098 | −$2,877 | −$3,057 | −$2,412 |
| Oct 7 | −$3,193 | −$2,971 | −$3,056 | −$2,506 |
| Oct 8 | −$3,190 | −$2,968 | −$3,054 | −$2,502 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,183 | −$2,963 | −$3,050 | −$2,501 |
| Oct 10 | −$3,178 | −$2,958 | −$3,045 | −$2,494 |
| Oct 11 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 12 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 13 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 14 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 15 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 16 | −$3,161 | −$2,944 | −$3,028 | −$2,487 |
| Oct 17 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 18 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 19 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 20 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 21 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 22 | −$3,159 | −$2,942 | −$3,027 | −$2,485 |
| Oct 23 | −$3,159 | −$2,941 | −$3,026 | −$2,483 |
| Oct 24 | −$3,158 | −$2,942 | −$3,029 | −$2,479 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$3,158 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 21% |
| 1 min | −$2,942 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 18% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$3,029 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 15% |
| 30 min | −$2,479 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 9% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$2,158
- Delay cost−$837.13
- Slippage−$0.26
- Fees (buys $31.81 · sells $1.64)−$33.45
- Follower PnL−$3,029
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 385 | −$3,026 | −40.2% |
| Crypto | 163 | −$3.78 | −0.4% |
| Geopolitics | 90 | +$1.13 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5c14…cc49Keeps 7% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6d9f…9790Keeps −14% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7c3d…5c6bLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.