In backtest, only 20% of 0x2a01…6397's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 20% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the +$796.70 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x2a01…6397's 1,432 buys across 337 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 16% of the leader's returns: +$796.70 against +$4,930 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $3,907, slippage $122.10 and fees $104.64. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $16,128 at once across 377 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 858 estimated: 308 high · 360 medium · 190 low · 277 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$795.80; 1 min: +$833.97; 5 min: +$796.70; 30 min: +$21.94. Max drawdown −$126.46 (5 min, Sep 30). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$1.28 | −$0.27 | +$0.31 | +$0.01 |
| Sep 22 | −$24.75 | −$20.75 | −$22.75 | +$2.78 |
| Sep 23 | −$24.75 | −$20.75 | −$22.75 | +$2.78 |
| Sep 24 | −$18.03 | −$18.78 | −$22.13 | +$3.20 |
| Sep 25 | −$17.11 | −$18.78 | −$22.13 | +$8.06 |
| Sep 26 | −$37.74 | −$33.02 | −$28.24 | +$0.50 |
| Sep 27 | +$113.60 | +$109.05 | −$27.95 | +$0.65 |
| Sep 28 | +$112.21 | +$107.89 | −$25.26 | +$0.65 |
| Sep 29 | +$113.03 | +$108.15 | −$25.25 | +$25.52 |
| Sep 30 | −$221.83 | −$194.39 | −$125.37 | −$139.79 |
| Oct 1 | −$79.52 | −$100.58 | −$42.45 | −$51.19 |
| Oct 2 | −$14.69 | −$0.03 | +$51.81 | −$53.00 |
| Oct 3 | −$7.71 | +$5.27 | +$81.71 | −$46.23 |
| Oct 4 | +$310.36 | +$335.07 | +$409.09 | +$7.99 |
| Oct 5 | +$324.19 | +$347.45 | +$421.69 | +$9.72 |
| Oct 6 | +$346.21 | +$353.43 | +$413.84 | +$8.21 |
| Oct 7 | +$361.67 | +$369.49 | +$413.88 | +$8.21 |
| Oct 8 | +$377.49 | +$386.74 | +$426.82 | +$8.14 |
| Oct 9 | +$392.65 | +$398.96 | +$431.93 | +$8.15 |
| Oct 10 | +$413.26 | +$417.28 | +$439.80 | +$10.57 |
| Oct 11 | +$439.44 | +$433.46 | +$450.27 | +$8.05 |
| Oct 12 | +$439.84 | +$434.16 | +$449.82 | +$9.25 |
| Oct 13 | +$436.47 | +$436.04 | +$449.74 | +$14.59 |
| Oct 14 | +$432.30 | +$431.02 | +$452.53 | +$14.69 |
| Oct 15 | +$438.15 | +$436.96 | +$460.15 | +$15.41 |
| Oct 16 | +$441.14 | +$441.31 | +$463.35 | +$15.50 |
| Oct 17 | +$440.12 | +$441.53 | +$464.49 | +$15.50 |
| Oct 18 | +$441.86 | +$442.41 | +$464.49 | +$15.50 |
| Oct 19 | +$447.50 | +$456.76 | +$479.57 | +$23.74 |
| Oct 20 | +$473.73 | +$482.91 | +$505.75 | +$33.21 |
| Oct 21 | +$475.20 | +$482.48 | +$505.75 | +$33.16 |
| Oct 22 | +$471.04 | +$480.61 | +$522.59 | +$28.31 |
| Oct 23 | +$428.19 | +$443.97 | +$497.84 | +$17.48 |
| Oct 24 | +$384.39 | +$411.54 | +$467.83 | +$41.53 |
| Oct 25 | +$791.40 | +$829.94 | +$795.33 | +$22.08 |
| Oct 26 | +$795.80 | +$833.97 | +$796.70 | +$21.94 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$795.80 | 16.1% | 25% |
| 1 min | +$833.97 | 16.9% | 23% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$796.70 | 16.2% | 20% |
| 30 min | +$21.94 | 0.4% | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,930
- Delay cost−$3,907
- Slippage−$122.10
- Fees (buys $83.55 · sells $21.09)−$104.64
- Follower PnL+$796.70
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 654 | +$526.74 | +2.1% |
| Culture | 322 | +$62.46 | +5.7% |
| Sports | 181 | +$99.97 | +3.8% |
| Tech | 133 | +$88.92 | +4.6% |
| Geopolitics | 59 | +$15.19 | +1.7% |
| Economy | 43 | +$2.16 | +1.2% |
| Finance | 40 | +$1.25 | +0.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc658…b784Leader lost money at this size
- 0x2e0b…8070Keeps 17% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf0d5…c665Keeps 15% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.