In backtest, only 19% of 0xf0d5…c665's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:12 UTC.
Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$2,067 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xf0d5…c665's 888 buys across 368 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 15% of the leader's returns: +$2,067 against +$13,839 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $11,251, slippage $237.06 and fees $283.82. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,817 at once across 253 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 498 estimated: 85 high · 263 medium · 150 low · 205 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$585.04; 1 min: +$806.94; 5 min: +$2,067; 30 min: −$780.43. Max drawdown −$1,678 (5 min, Sep 28). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$99.57 | −$126.58 | −$13.38 | −$179.11 |
| Sep 22 | −$113.98 | −$126.58 | −$13.38 | −$279.03 |
| Sep 23 | −$684.93 | −$508.49 | −$513.21 | −$376.73 |
| Sep 24 | −$863.21 | −$717.56 | −$716.62 | −$666.21 |
| Sep 25 | −$1,885 | −$1,636 | −$1,636 | −$663.65 |
| Sep 26 | −$1,876 | −$1,628 | −$1,630 | −$659.95 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,875 | −$1,627 | −$1,630 | −$659.75 |
| Sep 28 | −$1,928 | −$1,669 | −$1,678 | −$663.27 |
| Sep 29 | −$1,568 | −$1,315 | −$1,103 | −$145.20 |
| Sep 30 | −$1,470 | −$1,229 | −$1,036 | −$90.48 |
| Oct 1 | −$1,388 | −$1,147 | −$932.08 | +$377.33 |
| Oct 2 | −$1,388 | −$1,147 | −$932.08 | +$377.33 |
| Oct 3 | −$1,232 | −$993.22 | −$777.79 | +$459.54 |
| Oct 4 | −$1,141 | −$912.24 | −$749.63 | +$517.50 |
| Oct 5 | −$1,056 | −$829.50 | −$679.86 | +$549.36 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,054 | −$825.94 | −$680.32 | +$470.01 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,081 | −$823.26 | −$676.93 | +$470.01 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,451 | −$1,202 | −$1,109 | +$90.62 |
| Oct 9 | −$901.88 | −$648.23 | −$525.65 | +$392.88 |
| Oct 10 | −$901.80 | −$648.15 | −$525.65 | +$392.88 |
| Oct 11 | −$892.50 | −$642.70 | −$513.20 | +$393.00 |
| Oct 12 | −$765.60 | −$516.77 | −$469.39 | +$564.36 |
| Oct 13 | −$765.60 | −$516.77 | −$469.39 | +$564.36 |
| Oct 14 | −$757.83 | −$506.68 | −$458.90 | +$564.36 |
| Oct 15 | −$632.19 | −$414.28 | +$201.53 | −$394.55 |
| Oct 16 | +$94.39 | +$336.19 | +$1,338 | −$1,114 |
| Oct 17 | +$78.16 | +$266.91 | +$1,342 | −$1,123 |
| Oct 18 | +$55.22 | +$249.42 | +$1,369 | −$1,321 |
| Oct 19 | +$58.04 | +$252.27 | +$1,372 | −$1,283 |
| Oct 20 | +$64.33 | +$258.12 | +$1,378 | −$1,284 |
| Oct 21 | +$46.27 | +$237.72 | +$1,378 | −$1,275 |
| Oct 22 | +$206.52 | +$422.59 | +$1,601 | −$1,227 |
| Oct 23 | +$647.90 | +$866.12 | +$2,114 | −$781.19 |
| Oct 24 | +$601.59 | +$823.65 | +$2,071 | −$780.90 |
| Oct 25 | +$585.66 | +$806.75 | +$2,067 | −$780.43 |
| Oct 26 | +$585.04 | +$806.94 | +$2,067 | −$780.43 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$585.04 | 4.2% | 23% |
| 1 min | +$806.94 | 5.8% | 22% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,067 | 14.9% | 19% |
| 30 min | −$780.43 | −5.6% | 15% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$13,839
- Delay cost−$11,251
- Slippage−$237.06
- Fees (buys $200.64 · sells $83.18)−$283.82
- Follower PnL+$2,067
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 404 | −$605.07 | −4.6% |
| Weather | 137 | +$147.12 | +10.0% |
| Geopolitics | 134 | +$265.93 | +23.8% |
| Tech | 90 | +$2,000 | +106% |
| Sports | 62 | +$232.82 | +79.9% |
| Crypto | 41 | +$26.55 | +2.6% |
| Culture | 14 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 3 | +$0.19 | +0.1% |
| Economy | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x052f…53fbKeeps 19% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xeb6f…25f0Keeps −6% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x88f3…e7fbLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.