In backtest, only 18% of 0x7c3d…5c6b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional3 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:04 UTC.
Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the −$1,583 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x7c3d…5c6b's 4,593 buys across 475 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,583. The leader lost $307.48 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$285.77, slippage helped by +$75.65 and fees $1,637. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $47,309 at once across 1,471 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,490 estimated: 1,474 high · 634 medium · 382 low · 1,197 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$5,583; 1 min: −$5,484; 5 min: −$1,583; 30 min: +$1,359. Max drawdown −$4,693 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$266.10 | −$212.67 | −$73.42 | −$79.83 |
| Sep 22 | −$340.35 | −$285.58 | −$155.64 | −$79.83 |
| Sep 23 | −$348.11 | −$285.62 | −$167.07 | −$589.67 |
| Sep 24 | −$366.75 | −$299.53 | −$175.97 | −$581.96 |
| Sep 25 | −$552.44 | −$406.74 | −$275.28 | −$641.68 |
| Sep 26 | −$552.44 | −$406.74 | −$275.28 | −$641.68 |
| Sep 27 | −$552.44 | −$406.74 | −$275.28 | −$641.68 |
| Sep 28 | −$702.38 | −$500.38 | −$295.73 | −$648.21 |
| Sep 29 | −$498.54 | −$282.38 | +$227.03 | −$570.09 |
| Sep 30 | −$1,118 | −$616.50 | +$133.94 | −$557.29 |
| Oct 1 | −$2,133 | −$1,436 | −$467.30 | −$1,465 |
| Oct 2 | −$2,269 | −$1,438 | −$578.85 | −$1,634 |
| Oct 3 | −$2,324 | −$1,365 | −$619.95 | −$1,787 |
| Oct 4 | −$2,413 | −$1,331 | −$738.16 | −$2,018 |
| Oct 5 | −$2,507 | −$1,238 | −$609.73 | −$2,203 |
| Oct 6 | −$2,605 | −$1,250 | −$610.63 | −$2,350 |
| Oct 7 | −$2,693 | −$1,385 | −$763.69 | −$2,478 |
| Oct 8 | −$2,888 | −$1,556 | −$954.37 | −$2,441 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,407 | −$2,197 | −$1,595 | −$2,799 |
| Oct 10 | −$2,757 | −$1,449 | −$1,340 | −$2,820 |
| Oct 11 | −$3,089 | −$1,649 | −$1,461 | −$3,019 |
| Oct 12 | −$4,890 | −$3,284 | −$2,570 | −$4,094 |
| Oct 13 | −$5,730 | −$4,261 | −$3,515 | −$999.49 |
| Oct 14 | −$5,779 | −$4,297 | −$3,534 | −$1,207 |
| Oct 15 | −$5,938 | −$4,351 | −$3,383 | −$1,190 |
| Oct 16 | −$3,270 | −$2,287 | +$88.64 | +$4,661 |
| Oct 17 | −$3,332 | −$2,355 | +$43.22 | +$4,662 |
| Oct 18 | −$3,386 | −$2,363 | +$27.21 | +$4,661 |
| Oct 19 | −$2,085 | −$1,092 | +$2,143 | +$4,597 |
| Oct 20 | −$2,238 | −$1,183 | +$2,111 | +$4,573 |
| Oct 21 | −$4,023 | −$3,261 | −$199.41 | +$2,391 |
| Oct 22 | −$5,587 | −$4,970 | −$1,558 | +$1,686 |
| Oct 23 | −$6,510 | −$5,903 | −$2,370 | +$985.96 |
| Oct 24 | −$6,119 | −$5,621 | −$2,442 | +$1,000 |
| Oct 25 | −$5,436 | −$5,366 | −$1,471 | +$1,443 |
| Oct 26 | −$5,583 | −$5,484 | −$1,583 | +$1,359 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$5,583 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 25% |
| 1 min | −$5,484 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 20% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$1,583 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 18% |
| 30 min | +$1,359 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 14% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$307.48
- Delay helped+$285.77
- Slippage helped+$75.65
- Fees (buys $1,224 · sells $413.66)−$1,637
- Follower PnL−$1,583
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3,484 | −$4,609 | −6.2% |
| Geopolitics | 451 | −$54.84 | −1.4% |
| Finance | 198 | −$19.55 | −1.3% |
| Tech | 188 | +$3,878 | +41.3% |
| Sports | 149 | −$84.40 | −3.6% |
| Culture | 67 | −$67.63 | −7.7% |
| Crypto | 44 | −$626.35 | −77.3% |
| Weather | 6 | −$0.26 | −0.3% |
| Economy | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8b4b…541bLeader lost money at this size
- 0x9c9f…e2d2Leader lost money at this size
- 0xd950…ad1bKeeps −1137% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.