In backtest, only 1% of 0x45bb…41a7's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 1% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$12.94 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x45bb…41a7's 863 buys across 400 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 0% of the leader's returns: +$12.94 against +$4,815 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $4,711, slippage $53.85 and fees $36.78. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,262 at once across 88 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 394 estimated: 73 high · 155 medium · 166 low · 404 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$70.08; 1 min: −$236.62; 5 min: +$12.94; 30 min: −$236.52. Max drawdown −$389.51 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | −$5.04 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | −$12.94 | −$7.89 | +$8.55 | −$7.89 |
| Sep 24 | −$7.86 | −$6.57 | +$9.03 | −$5.71 |
| Sep 25 | −$7.86 | −$6.57 | +$9.03 | −$5.71 |
| Sep 26 | +$13.01 | +$13.59 | +$27.40 | −$12.62 |
| Sep 27 | +$13.01 | +$13.59 | +$27.40 | −$12.62 |
| Sep 28 | −$40.69 | −$40.11 | +$9.31 | −$6.11 |
| Sep 29 | −$45.36 | −$46.20 | +$9.31 | −$6.18 |
| Sep 30 | −$147.84 | −$148.68 | −$102.45 | −$111.02 |
| Oct 1 | −$240.64 | −$236.29 | −$203.61 | −$215.02 |
| Oct 2 | −$240.64 | −$236.29 | −$203.61 | −$215.02 |
| Oct 3 | −$170.04 | −$236.29 | −$203.61 | −$215.02 |
| Oct 4 | −$158.17 | −$213.62 | +$7.29 | −$290.44 |
| Oct 5 | −$179.02 | −$199.27 | +$25.61 | −$289.59 |
| Oct 6 | −$206.50 | −$199.27 | +$25.61 | −$289.59 |
| Oct 7 | −$352.34 | −$337.03 | −$105.06 | −$304.90 |
| Oct 8 | −$364.73 | −$337.03 | −$105.06 | −$296.11 |
| Oct 9 | −$322.48 | −$329.59 | −$89.72 | −$296.11 |
| Oct 10 | −$311.77 | −$325.05 | −$87.10 | −$296.11 |
| Oct 11 | −$305.99 | −$319.27 | −$84.80 | −$296.11 |
| Oct 12 | −$397.58 | −$421.67 | −$137.53 | −$296.11 |
| Oct 13 | −$385.42 | −$410.14 | −$137.70 | −$305.86 |
| Oct 14 | −$427.83 | −$446.23 | −$169.59 | −$305.86 |
| Oct 15 | −$367.36 | −$366.02 | −$45.43 | −$230.76 |
| Oct 16 | −$12.35 | −$228.26 | +$12.94 | −$233.40 |
| Oct 17 | −$26.30 | −$228.26 | +$12.94 | −$233.40 |
| Oct 18 | −$26.30 | −$228.26 | +$12.94 | −$233.40 |
| Oct 19 | −$26.28 | −$228.24 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 20 | −$26.28 | −$228.24 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 21 | −$25.19 | −$227.11 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 22 | −$27.77 | −$229.69 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 23 | −$42.05 | −$229.69 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 24 | −$66.12 | −$232.66 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 25 | −$70.08 | −$236.62 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
| Oct 26 | −$70.08 | −$236.62 | +$12.94 | −$236.52 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$70.08 | −1.5% | 1% |
| 1 min | −$236.62 | −4.9% | 1% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$12.94 | 0.3% | 1% |
| 30 min | −$236.52 | −4.9% | 1% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,815
- Delay cost−$4,711
- Slippage−$53.85
- Fees (buys $35.57 · sells $1.21)−$36.78
- Follower PnL+$12.94
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Culture | 270 | −$32.17 | −6.8% |
| Tech | 269 | +$261.27 | +24.6% |
| Politics | 110 | −$120.10 | −33.7% |
| Finance | 88 | −$97.63 | −48.9% |
| Sports | 56 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Crypto | 33 | +$1.06 | +4.7% |
| Economy | 31 | +$0.51 | +2.8% |
| Geopolitics | 6 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Culture traders
- 0xb260…715aBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xb084…9781Keeps 91% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7426…7b6dKeeps 44% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x743d…f77eLeader lost money at this size
- 0xb028…8686Leader lost money at this size
- 0xc412…592dLeader lost money at this size
See the full Culture copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.