In backtest, only 14% of 0x4a69…228f's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 14% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 21% only partly; the −$78.37 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x4a69…228f's 118 buys across 64 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$78.37. The leader lost $835.38 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$673.27, slippage helped by +$153.71 and fees $69.97. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,456 at once across 42 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 60 estimated: 36 high · 13 medium · 11 low · 39 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$132.45; 1 min: +$30.81; 5 min: −$78.37; 30 min: −$73.24. Max drawdown −$1,051 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | −$124.96 | −$30.47 | −$10.00 | −$180.46 |
| Oct 4 | −$115.63 | −$30.47 | +$2.21 | −$94.25 |
| Oct 5 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 6 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 7 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 8 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 9 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 10 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 11 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 12 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 13 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 14 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 15 | −$173.17 | −$88.00 | −$55.33 | −$196.07 |
| Oct 16 | +$67.60 | +$145.45 | −$0.91 | −$137.78 |
| Oct 17 | +$11.26 | +$98.22 | −$23.29 | −$134.30 |
| Oct 18 | +$11.26 | +$107.62 | −$9.92 | +$314.15 |
| Oct 19 | −$2.73 | +$107.94 | +$10.62 | +$304.05 |
| Oct 20 | +$152.69 | +$291.16 | +$311.74 | +$367.48 |
| Oct 21 | +$149.13 | +$287.60 | +$311.74 | +$319.50 |
| Oct 22 | +$562.31 | +$714.39 | +$835.76 | +$712.44 |
| Oct 23 | +$668.94 | +$823.58 | +$839.34 | +$870.42 |
| Oct 24 | +$681.52 | +$836.16 | +$848.43 | +$879.84 |
| Oct 25 | −$167.98 | −$5.20 | −$111.83 | −$76.02 |
| Oct 26 | −$132.45 | +$30.81 | −$78.37 | −$73.24 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$132.45 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 17% |
| 1 min | +$30.81 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 15% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$78.37 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 14% |
| 30 min | −$73.24 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 18% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$835.38
- Delay helped+$673.27
- Slippage helped+$153.71
- Fees (buys $62.68 · sells $7.29)−$69.97
- Follower PnL−$78.37
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 75 | −$31.05 | −1.5% |
| Sports | 35 | −$22.20 | −7.8% |
| Finance | 6 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 2 | −$25.12 | −97.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7447…a16dLeader lost money at this size
- 0x9592…a7b8Leader lost money at this size
- 0x9d73…216bLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.