In backtest, only 1% of 0x4ad6…464c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 1% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 0% only partly; the −$481.07 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x4ad6…464c's 1,661 buys across 137 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$481.07, while the leader made +$1,544 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $2,002, slippage helped by +$11.74 and fees $34.65 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $899.41 at once across 27 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 675 estimated: 11 high · 550 medium · 114 low · 967 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$349.45; 1 min: −$474.54; 5 min: −$481.07; 30 min: −$87.34. Max drawdown −$482.51 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$0.12 | +$0.12 | +$0.12 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$0.12 | +$0.12 | +$0.12 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | +$0.70 | +$0.70 | +$0.51 | +$0.01 |
| Sep 25 | +$1.09 | +$1.09 | +$0.89 | +$0.01 |
| Sep 26 | +$1.18 | +$1.09 | +$0.89 | +$0.01 |
| Sep 27 | +$1.73 | +$1.63 | +$1.35 | +$0.06 |
| Sep 28 | +$1.73 | +$1.63 | +$1.35 | +$0.06 |
| Sep 29 | +$1.73 | +$1.63 | +$1.35 | +$0.06 |
| Sep 30 | +$3.71 | +$2.72 | +$1.44 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 1 | +$3.71 | +$2.72 | +$1.44 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 2 | +$3.71 | +$2.72 | +$1.44 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 3 | +$3.71 | +$2.72 | +$1.44 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 4 | +$3.71 | +$2.72 | +$1.44 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 5 | −$41.96 | −$38.87 | +$0.78 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 6 | −$63.34 | −$69.43 | −$73.40 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 7 | −$63.34 | −$69.43 | −$73.40 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 8 | −$63.34 | −$69.43 | −$73.40 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 9 | −$258.84 | −$274.38 | −$216.03 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 10 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 11 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 12 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 13 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 14 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 15 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 16 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 17 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 18 | −$267.45 | −$326.68 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 19 | −$267.36 | −$326.60 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 20 | −$267.36 | −$326.60 | −$279.98 | +$0.06 |
| Oct 21 | −$267.27 | −$326.51 | −$279.88 | +$0.16 |
| Oct 22 | −$417.24 | −$503.86 | −$444.86 | −$88.23 |
| Oct 23 | −$417.26 | −$503.88 | −$443.45 | −$87.34 |
| Oct 24 | −$371.17 | −$494.44 | −$481.07 | −$87.34 |
| Oct 25 | −$349.45 | −$474.54 | −$481.07 | −$87.34 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$349.45 | −22.6% | 2% |
| 1 min | −$474.54 | −30.7% | 2% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$481.07 | −31.2% | 1% |
| 30 min | −$87.34 | −5.7% | 0% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,544
- Delay cost−$2,002
- Slippage helped+$11.74
- Fees (buys $27.97 · sells $6.68)−$34.65
- Follower PnL−$481.07
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,526 | −$484.08 | −76.0% |
| Politics | 85 | +$2.71 | +0.2% |
| Economy | 27 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 10 | +$0.09 | +0.1% |
| Weather | 7 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Geopolitics | 6 | +$0.20 | +0.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5519…7040Leader lost money at this size
- 0xa324…afc9Leader lost money at this size
- 0xc126…832cKeeps 0% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.