In backtest, copying 0x74b7…8b0b beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x74b7…8b0b's 1,327 buys across 144 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$3,744 — more than the leader's +$3,551 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (105.5%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$2,755, slippage $223.18 and fees $2,338. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,800 at once across 1,120 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 139 estimated: 12 high · 101 medium · 26 low · 81 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$14,544; 1 min: +$17,331; 5 min: +$3,744; 30 min: +$2,340. Max drawdown −$10,807 (5 min, Oct 18). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$123.05 | +$140.09 | +$49.61 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | −$759.47 | −$285.66 | +$101.74 | +$45.60 |
| Sep 23 | +$163.99 | +$587.96 | +$232.86 | +$704.28 |
| Sep 24 | −$2,704 | −$2,435 | −$2,026 | −$634.14 |
| Sep 25 | +$2,030 | +$2,145 | +$2,292 | +$1,325 |
| Sep 26 | +$4,412 | +$4,783 | +$1,748 | +$3,009 |
| Sep 27 | +$11,172 | +$12,735 | +$7,985 | +$3,481 |
| Sep 28 | +$11,172 | +$12,735 | +$7,985 | +$3,481 |
| Sep 29 | +$7,790 | +$8,732 | +$3,926 | +$793.60 |
| Sep 30 | +$9,987 | +$11,656 | +$5,664 | +$1,846 |
| Oct 1 | +$11,015 | +$14,258 | +$7,368 | +$1,244 |
| Oct 2 | +$10,751 | +$14,005 | +$7,161 | +$2,081 |
| Oct 3 | +$8,951 | +$12,800 | +$7,659 | +$4,783 |
| Oct 4 | +$5,650 | +$9,675 | +$4,555 | +$3,853 |
| Oct 5 | +$5,944 | +$9,701 | +$4,073 | +$3,853 |
| Oct 6 | +$6,108 | +$9,857 | +$3,972 | +$3,894 |
| Oct 7 | +$6,329 | +$10,085 | +$4,250 | +$5,028 |
| Oct 8 | +$5,614 | +$9,371 | +$3,532 | +$4,303 |
| Oct 9 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 10 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 11 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 12 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 13 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 14 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 15 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 16 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 17 | +$4,281 | +$8,036 | +$2,196 | +$3,318 |
| Oct 18 | +$2,553 | +$6,309 | +$466.25 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 19 | +$2,553 | +$6,309 | +$466.25 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,553 | +$6,309 | +$466.25 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 21 | +$2,553 | +$6,309 | +$466.25 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 22 | +$2,553 | +$6,309 | +$466.25 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,302 | +$6,407 | +$529.74 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 24 | +$5,884 | +$8,856 | +$2,412 | +$2,719 |
| Oct 25 | +$14,544 | +$17,331 | +$3,744 | +$2,340 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$14,544 | 100%+ (Exactly 409.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 92% |
| 1 min | +$17,331 | 100%+ (Exactly 488.1%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 90% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$3,744 | 100%+ (Exactly 105.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 83% |
| 30 min | +$2,340 | 65.9% | 30% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,551
- Delay helped+$2,755
- Slippage−$223.18
- Fees (buys $2,248 · sells $90.27)−$2,338
- Follower PnL+$3,744
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,327 | +$3,744 | +3.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9ee4…697bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf19b…1613Keeps 89% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7011…c6daBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc4ad…9948Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.