In backtest, copying 0xf28e…cab2 beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional4 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:33 UTC.
A copier who mirrored 0xf28e…cab2's 740 buys across 266 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$13,856 — more than the leader's +$10,752 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (128.9%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$2,495, slippage helped by +$2,057 and fees $1,447. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,902 at once across 650 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 128 estimated: 38 high · 88 medium · 2 low · 10 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$6,267; 1 min: +$6,853; 5 min: +$13,856; 30 min: +$5,681. Max drawdown −$2,942 (5 min, Oct 6). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$259.12 | −$247.90 | −$319.25 | −$394.37 |
| Sep 22 | −$322.65 | −$535.36 | −$602.63 | −$476.33 |
| Sep 23 | −$322.65 | −$535.36 | −$602.63 | −$476.33 |
| Sep 24 | −$732.48 | −$897.52 | −$807.83 | −$605.58 |
| Sep 25 | −$147.04 | −$165.11 | −$224.52 | −$499.86 |
| Sep 26 | −$599.59 | −$601.28 | −$612.37 | −$824.26 |
| Sep 27 | −$230.72 | −$323.33 | +$202.89 | −$435.07 |
| Sep 28 | +$309.39 | +$265.44 | +$664.76 | +$167.93 |
| Sep 29 | +$434.75 | +$367.19 | +$575.45 | −$20.43 |
| Sep 30 | +$434.75 | +$367.19 | +$575.45 | −$20.43 |
| Oct 1 | +$434.75 | +$367.19 | +$575.45 | −$20.43 |
| Oct 2 | +$73.46 | −$8.58 | +$299.63 | −$121.06 |
| Oct 3 | +$2,597 | +$2,446 | +$2,677 | +$1,391 |
| Oct 4 | +$227.11 | +$256.53 | +$110.56 | −$443.76 |
| Oct 5 | −$13.27 | +$50.74 | +$18.71 | −$398.40 |
| Oct 6 | −$114.03 | −$50.02 | −$264.75 | −$498.03 |
| Oct 7 | −$114.03 | −$50.02 | −$264.75 | −$498.03 |
| Oct 8 | −$114.03 | −$50.02 | −$264.75 | −$498.03 |
| Oct 9 | +$124.76 | +$216.13 | −$264.75 | −$498.03 |
| Oct 10 | +$621.11 | +$745.55 | +$738.36 | +$214.82 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,106 | +$1,447 | +$8,480 | +$548.92 |
| Oct 12 | +$911.73 | +$1,226 | +$8,378 | +$345.73 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,422 | +$1,887 | +$8,564 | +$1,491 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,422 | +$1,887 | +$8,564 | +$1,491 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,422 | +$1,887 | +$8,564 | +$1,491 |
| Oct 16 | −$292.10 | +$166.72 | +$6,938 | +$1,919 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,273 | +$1,791 | +$8,181 | +$2,346 |
| Oct 18 | +$640.20 | +$1,162 | +$7,258 | +$1,892 |
| Oct 19 | +$774.82 | +$1,150 | +$7,279 | +$1,867 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,835 | +$1,933 | +$7,917 | +$2,619 |
| Oct 21 | +$3,290 | +$3,332 | +$9,169 | +$3,588 |
| Oct 22 | +$3,551 | +$3,575 | +$9,352 | +$3,949 |
| Oct 23 | +$4,381 | +$4,811 | +$10,563 | +$3,897 |
| Oct 24 | +$5,692 | +$6,267 | +$12,530 | +$6,098 |
| Oct 25 | +$6,137 | +$6,687 | +$13,580 | +$5,267 |
| Oct 26 | +$6,267 | +$6,853 | +$13,856 | +$5,681 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$6,267 | 58.3% | 90% |
| 1 min | +$6,853 | 63.7% | 86% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$13,856 | 100%+ (Exactly 128.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 81% |
| 30 min | +$5,681 | 52.9% | 61% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$10,752
- Delay helped+$2,495
- Slippage helped+$2,057
- Fees (buys $1,447 · sells $0.00)−$1,447
- Follower PnL+$13,856
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 736 | +$13,856 | +22.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
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See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.