In backtest, only 28% of 0x54b5…4b31's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:04 UTC.
Only 28% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$373.24 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x54b5…4b31's 1,851 buys across 110 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 6% of the leader's returns: +$373.24 against +$6,510 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $4,623, slippage $179.81 and fees $1,334. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $17,624 at once across 673 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,023 estimated: 474 high · 399 medium · 150 low · 305 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$332.35; 1 min: −$166.48; 5 min: +$373.24; 30 min: −$4,222. Max drawdown −$3,529 (5 min, Oct 9). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$56.27 | −$55.73 | −$31.87 | −$1.60 |
| Sep 22 | −$152.45 | −$161.91 | −$77.71 | +$26.88 |
| Sep 23 | −$152.45 | −$161.91 | −$77.71 | +$26.88 |
| Sep 24 | −$152.45 | −$161.91 | −$77.71 | +$26.88 |
| Sep 25 | −$669.64 | −$678.58 | −$601.08 | −$496.62 |
| Sep 26 | +$456.72 | +$427.08 | +$362.26 | +$55.70 |
| Sep 27 | +$454.55 | +$407.23 | +$260.98 | +$54.84 |
| Sep 28 | +$454.55 | +$407.23 | +$260.98 | +$54.84 |
| Sep 29 | +$457.15 | +$410.54 | +$264.72 | +$56.41 |
| Sep 30 | +$571.18 | +$484.48 | +$322.20 | +$158.87 |
| Oct 1 | +$547.15 | +$455.50 | +$322.20 | +$129.69 |
| Oct 2 | +$507.27 | +$414.37 | +$280.34 | +$92.45 |
| Oct 3 | −$405.83 | −$318.81 | −$58.83 | −$926.07 |
| Oct 4 | −$690.14 | −$929.06 | −$238.66 | −$3,847 |
| Oct 5 | −$1,358 | −$1,715 | −$992.80 | −$3,994 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,363 | −$1,721 | −$1,001 | −$3,993 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,363 | −$1,721 | −$1,001 | −$3,993 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,627 | −$1,841 | −$1,120 | −$4,128 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,102 | −$3,204 | −$2,172 | −$4,944 |
| Oct 10 | −$3,029 | −$3,123 | −$2,072 | −$4,987 |
| Oct 11 | −$2,957 | −$3,051 | −$1,996 | −$4,925 |
| Oct 12 | −$2,886 | −$2,963 | −$1,956 | −$4,878 |
| Oct 13 | −$2,620 | −$2,703 | −$1,712 | −$4,487 |
| Oct 14 | −$2,239 | −$2,339 | −$1,399 | −$4,119 |
| Oct 15 | −$777.95 | −$858.97 | +$241.15 | −$5,106 |
| Oct 16 | −$777.95 | −$858.97 | +$241.15 | −$5,106 |
| Oct 17 | +$374.95 | +$277.07 | +$1,623 | −$3,465 |
| Oct 18 | +$895.51 | +$959.08 | +$2,161 | −$2,868 |
| Oct 19 | +$2,695 | +$2,673 | +$2,812 | −$1,871 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,771 | +$2,755 | +$2,916 | −$1,807 |
| Oct 21 | +$2,075 | +$2,024 | +$2,191 | −$2,157 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,995 | +$1,966 | +$2,132 | −$2,178 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,824 | +$1,792 | +$1,953 | −$2,450 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,782 | +$1,737 | +$1,860 | −$2,449 |
| Oct 25 | +$332.35 | −$166.48 | +$373.24 | −$4,222 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$332.35 | 5.1% | 30% |
| 1 min | −$166.48 | −2.6% | 28% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$373.24 | 5.7% | 28% |
| 30 min | −$4,222 | −64.8% | 28% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$6,510
- Delay cost−$4,623
- Slippage−$179.81
- Fees (buys $911.60 · sells $422.70)−$1,334
- Follower PnL+$373.24
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,188 | −$501.17 | −1.3% |
| Sports | 603 | +$917.51 | +6.0% |
| Crypto | 40 | −$1.68 | −1.7% |
| Geopolitics | 12 | −$41.42 | −41.4% |
| Culture | 4 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa24d…7857Keeps 15% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc6dd…4b9fLeader lost money at this size
- 0x2d99…4ca3Keeps −578% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.